The resurgence of what the Latvian government refers to as the "reactionary circles in the Soviet Communist Party and Soviet armed forces" constitutes the most immediate threat not only to European stability but, ironically, to the survival of the Soviet Union.  Boris Yeltsin rightly observed that the present counter-offensive by the old line will be a blow to the slender possibility that a majority of the fifteen republics will sign Gorbachev's new treaty redefining the terms of union.  The union of these republics can continue only if its component parts are allowed to function in a loose confederation.  If the reactionaries prevail and try to impose tight control, the union will splinter amid internal strife.  The world might then witness the violent break-up of a multinational state possessing tens of thousands of nuclear warheads.  A chill wind indeed.

Alvin H. Bernstein is the director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington, DC.  The views expressed here are entirely his own and do not represent those of the National Defense University or any other government agency.