Top 3 U.S. Presidential Election Comebacks of All-Time
Despite what the polls say, Trump might still have a chance to make a major comeback, yet again. Here's what history tells us.
In recent weeks, America’s seeing what President Donald Trump never thought would happen - he’s tanking in the polls.
But, this isn’t unusual for the president, as in 2016, right before the presidential elections, polls revealed that Hillary Clinton towered over Trump.
Quinnipiac University released a nationwide poll this week, showing former Vice President Joe Biden with a 15-point lead over Trump - the widest margin Biden has seen from the university’s polling institute.
Trump’s support is also underwater in Texas, a normally red state, according to a Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll, as Biden takes a 5-point lead.
Other national polls conducted this summer revealed Biden’s growing support - up 14 points (CNN), up 11 points (NBC/Wall Street Journal), up 10 points (Reuters/Ipsos), up 9 points (The Economist/YouGov) and up 8 points (Morning Consult).
Swing-state polls also measured in favor of the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate with Biden up 6 points in Florida (CBS News/You Gov) and up 10 points in Pennsylvania (Monmouth University), according to its high voter turnout model, FiveThirtyEight noted.
With the presidential elections less than four months away, can Trump win the presidency like he did in 2016?
Here are some of the top presidential comebacks in history - a turn of events that Trump should be hoping for.
Donald Trump, 2016:
The outcome of the 2016 presidential elections stumped media outlets, politicians and the popular vote.
“I was surprised that Donald Trump was elected president, as I think most - maybe Donald Trump was too, but a whole lotta people were,” James Comey, former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, told ABC News in 2018.
Clinton led in a number of polls, as she was up 12 points (Monmouth University), up 11 points (NBC/Wall Street Journal), up 8 points (George Washington University), up 7 points (Fox News) and 4 points (Washington Post/ABC News), according to The Washington Post. Despite having a clear advantage on paper, Trump won the Electoral College with 304 votes and Clinton had only 227 votes. So, what happened?
Media outlets and politicians speculate Trump’s win was due to the silent majority, Clinton’s ongoing email scandal and some just viewed her as a lousy candidate and didn’t vote.
“In today’s presidential election system, the ability to govern has taken a back seat to the ability to get attention,” Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution, wrote. Trump rallied attention from voters and proposed a new form of ideology - “Trumpism” that gained a strong following.
Ronald Reagan, 1980:
Although the Reagan - Jimmy Carter election wasn’t a substantial presidential comeback, incumbent Carter did lead in seven polls taken in March and April of 1980, according to The Poynter Institute.
Gallup polls also taken in 1980 revealed Carter was ahead by double-digits, but slowly lost advantage once June hit. Political scientists hypothesize Carter’s defeat was due to the dying economy, energy issues and frictional international tensions.
To some historians, Reagan sparked a conservative movement that united multiple factions within the party. There was the religious faction - passionate pro-life goers, those that fought to lower the corporate tax and others who resisted forming an alliance within the party. Reagan was able to bring these factions together and win the Electoral College with 489 votes and Carter had only 49.
Harry Truman, 1948
In 1948, The New York Times published, “[t]he popular view that Gov. Thomas E. Dewey’s election as President is a foregone conclusion.” The New Republic branded its front-page editorial with, “AS A CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT, HARRY TRUMAN SHOULD QUIT.” Newsweek revealed a survey of about 50 political writers, all predicting Dewey would become president. Almost every major media outlet endorsed Dewey.
Truman won the Electoral College with 303 votes compared to Dewey’s 189 votes. Truman also won the popular vote overwhelmingly. So, again, how did this happen?
Similar to the 2016 elections, public opinion polls predicted Dewey would win. Pollster Elmo Burns Roper stopped conducting polls months before the elections because it was pointless. But, the polls were wrong, and Truman took the presidency.
There have been a number of predictions for Dewey’s defeat. One, Truman’s advisors Clark Clifford and Jim Rowe devised a strong platform to bring in different types of voters including Jews, African Americans and farmers. Truman’s directive reached all of these groups as he embraced Israel, civil rights and programs to help the working class.
Second, the polls affected the outcome of the popular vote. Republicans may have felt overconfident in Dewey, expecting the win to be inevitable. But, Democrats could also have rallied a strong last-minute support system to go out and vote for Truman.
Despite what the polls say, Trump might still have a chance to make a major comeback, yet again.
Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.