On Friday, December 20, Lockheed Martin announced that it had signed a deal with the United States Department of Defense (DoD) for full-rate production of Lot 18 of the Air Force’s F-35A, the Marine Corps’ F-35B, and the Navy’s F-35C variants of the F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation warplane. 

Beyond the American order, thirty-nine F-35As and seven F-35Bs will be sent to U.S. allies, courtesy of concomitant foreign military sales deals. Interestingly, The Defense Post reports that “Undisclosed program partners will receive 15 F-35As and one F-35B aircraft.” The production of Lot 18 is anticipated to be completed by June 2027.

This is an interesting development, considering how much Lockheed’s F-35 program has fallen into controversy since it was first unveiled in 2006 (the program had been in development since at least 1995).

Three Key Points About the F-35 Program

First, the F-35 has struggled to meet its agreed-upon timelines and Lockheed has, throughout the twenty-year-long course of the program, rarely delivered the quantity of F-35s without going beyond its allotted budget.

Second, the rapid development and deployment of cheaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has called into question the efficacy of paying for the vaunted F-35. And this second point is key, as the incoming president, Donald J. Trump, is a month from taking office. Trump is taking advice from tech leaders such as Elon Musk and the biotech billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, both of whom have expressed deep skepticism as to the utility of this manned, fifth-generation warplane.

These individuals surrounding Trump believe that unmanned systems are superior and will only become more essential to the modern battlefield, especially in light of the advances in things like artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and quantum computing. When all is said and done, the F-35 program is projected to cost U.S. taxpayers more than $2 trillion over the course of its lifetime. Could that money have been better spent on unmanned autonomous or semi-autonomous systems?

Oh, and Trump himself has long been a critic of the F-35 program.

On December 12, 2016, as he was transitioning to become president for the first time, Trump famously tweeted that, “The F-35 program and cost is out of control. Billions of dollars can and will be saved on military (and other) purchases after January 20th.”

So, the Pentagon is clearly pushing through what might end up being its last tranche of purchases for the F-35 (at least until Trump and his team of advisors get a good look under the hood of the program that many believe has been spinning out of control).

Third, there remains a bit of argument within America’s defense aerospace community as to whether the F-35 or the F-22A Raptor was the right plane for the U.S. government to favor. Sure, the F-35 is a multirole warplane (meaning it does both air-to-air combat as well as air-to-ground attack and surveillance missions) whereas the F-22 is just an air superiority fighter.

Yet, in the age of renewed great power competition, the F-22 might be more important than the F-35 (at least for the Air Force). Further, the F-22 is clearly more advanced than the F-35. 

Is the F-35 Even the Best Fifth-Generation Bird?

Key allies, like Britain and Israel, are prevented from purchasing the F-22 not only because the production line was prematurely canceled, but because the F-22 contains such supposedly advanced technologies that if they were shared even with U.S. allies it would weaken U.S. national security.

If there were no real differences technologically then why do the Pentagon and Congress still refuse to make the F-22 an exportable program whereas the F-35 is an exportable system? 

Nevertheless, the Pentagon will be getting forty-eight F-35As for the Air Force, sixteen F-35Bs and five F-35Cs for the Marines, and the Navy will be getting fourteen F-35Cs. Most of the work for Lockheed will occur in California and Texas. After this tranche, though, Trump and his team might push to cancel the program. 

Losing the F-35 But Gaining a Sixth-Generation Plane? 

What’s more, the Air Force appears dead set on getting its sixth-generation Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program to replace the fifth-generation birds they have. The Navy is also keen on getting its sixth-generation F/A-XX plane.

Both services are understandably hitting stiff resistance from a Congress that is increasingly skeptical of investing gobs of tax dollars on sixth-generation warplanes that will only marginally enhance the capabilities of the current fleet of fifth-generation warplanes in service to both the Navy and Air Force.

But, should the incoming forty-seventh president follow through on his threats to cancel or seriously curb future production of the F-35, it might free up the Air Force and/or Navy to reinvest in their respective sixth-generation planes. One thing is clear, though, this might be the last tranche of F-35s until the incoming Trump administration can figure out what, precisely, it seeks to do.

Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, The American Spectator, to the National Interest. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

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