China’s air superiority advantage in terms of volume is directly tied to F-22’s abbreviated production run, but the implications of that decision — amid an era of renewed great power competition — also prompted the Air Force to begin the development of a new air superiority fighter to replace it, currently known as the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter.

The truth is, if the original order of 750 F-22s had been honored and these fighters eventually incorporated infrared search and track (IRST) and helmet-cued targeting capabilities, the Air Force likely wouldn’t be considering a replacement for the Raptor for another decade or more. But with concerns about a shortage of airframes in mind, the Air Force has invested billions into the development of an even more advanced platform set to become the basis for yet another new generation of fighters, with plans for them to be flying by the end of this decade.

And it isn’t the only one. The U.S. Navy is now also actively pursuing the development of a replacement fighter for its aging fleets of F/A-18 Super Hornets, dubbed the F/A-XX. This new jet, being developed within the same Next Generation Air Dominance umbrella, is largely independent of the Air Force effort but is expected to share some modular onboard systems.

America’s 5th generation fighters already enjoy both the technological and experiential edge over China’s J-20 — an issue China may be able to overcome through production volume. But with newer, even more capable platforms in production in the 2030s, America’s stealth fighter technology, dispersed between Block 3 and 4 F-35s, NGAD fighters, F/A-XX fighters, and their accompanying drone wingmen, may soon offer the United States the opportunity to close the production volume gap as well.

At the end of the day, fighter designs are always about compromise, balancing performance with price and capability with capacity. The United States currently enjoys a performance advantage, while China may soon —or already do — have the in-theater advantage of capacity. The only way to offset the capacity advantage, of course, is with higher production volume, and the only way to do that… is with big heaps of money delivered via consistent lines of accounting insulated from American lawmakers’ frequent inability to pass Defense budgets before the fiscal year meant to be funded.

Deterring a fight with China in the decades to come will be a grossly expensive enterprise that will require a high degree of political (and public) buy-in, as new fighters emerge with massive sticker prices expected to exceed $300 million per airframe.

But while the costs associated with deterring a war with China may be substantial, the cost of failing to deter such a fight will be exponentially greater and paid not just in tax dollars, but in the blood of American warfighters.

Alex Hollings is a writer, dad, and Marine veteran.

This article was first published by Sandboxx News.

Image: Creative Commons.