Without direct elections, Hong Kong protests will reemerge, expatriates and some Hong Kongers are likely to accelerate plans to relocate elsewhere, and businesses will face shifting political, social and economic dynamics that may require them to rethink their long-term plans for Hong Kong. One country, two systems was always little more than a useful fiction, but less than a quarter-century since the return of Hong Kong to China has shown just how unrealistic the idea ultimately was. And that reality will shape plans and behavior in Hong Kong.

In Hong Kong, Beijing Will Choose Chinese Sovereignty is republished with the permission of Stratfor Worldview, a geopolitical intelligence and advisory firm.

Image: Reuters.