If Europe is able to continue introducing modifications for countries with different objectives, redlines, and aspirations, this will ultimately stop Putin’s war machine. An inability to carve out exceptions for indifferent Hungarian citizens would have led to no embargo and convinced Putin that he could expand his war aims without facing retribution.

Attention to public opinion has been overlooked as a key strategy in statecraft. Political leaders must constantly monitor the primary concerns of their citizens and, just as importantly, those living in other countries. This involves understanding how attitudes have changed over time and what the policy implications may be.

Putin neglected the gradual increase in support for European integration that swept through Ukraine over the past decade, especially after the annexation of Crimea. A progressive shift away from Russia has fortified Ukrainian resolve on the battlefield and enabled Kyiv to receive aid quickly from Western leaders thanks to the rapprochement that preceded the invasion. If Putin does manage to consolidate gains in the east, resistance movements will emerge and further complicate Russia’s military aims.

European leaders, however, have succeeded in considering the importance of public opinion. France, Germany, and Italy have increased pressure on Russia in light of accusations of insufficient action from domestic audiences in each country. The EU has approved Ukraine’s candidate status and detached itself from Russia while accounting for the needs of its dissenting members.

Although Putin did not properly monitor public opinion abroad leading up to his invasion, he still maintains a high domestic approval rating and acts in ways that please the vast majority of Russian citizens. He has more leeway than European leaders do thanks to this support, but it rests on a tenacious anti-Western framework propagated by state media. Whether or not Russian public opinion turns away from Putin will depend on European leaders’ success in absorbing economic blowback from sanctions.

If Ukraine expels all Russian troops from its territory, becomes an EU member, and works toward economic and social prosperity through European integration, Putin’s anti-Westernism will lose its attractiveness. If Russian public opinion begins to plummet, Putin’s expansionist grand strategy will be in dire need of a change.

Axel de Vernou is a rising sophomore studying Global Affairs at Yale University. He is currently interning at the Hudson Institute.

Image: Reuters.