What You Need to Know: The U.S. Navy’s aircraft carriers face significant vulnerabilities against advanced anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systems, particularly those developed by China. These systems rely on overwhelming numbers of missiles, hypersonic weapons, and drone swarms to overwhelm a carrier's finite defensive capabilities.

-While U.S. carriers like the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower survived close calls from Houthi attacks, China’s robust manufacturing capabilities allow it to field far greater quantities of advanced A2/AD weapons.

-In a conflict near Chinese shores, U.S. carriers may struggle to withstand these attacks due to sheer volume and precision, posing a critical challenge to American naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

US Aircraft Carriers Vulnerable to Chinese Missile Attack Because of Math

America faces the prospect of a major great power war involving itself and China (possibly other nations, too). Any conflict with China would be fought closer to Chinese shores, meaning that the United States Navy would be the tip of the spear in any such fight. China’s military understands this.

That is why the Chinese have spent the better part of a decade developing—and deploying—advanced anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systemsthat will stunt any US Navy attempt to deploy warships near regions that China claims as their own in a time of war.

Already, the Houthi Rebels in Yemen have shown how the US Navy can at least be slowed down by the introduction of increasingly sophisticated A2/AD-style attacks with anti-ship ballistic missiles.

While the Americans can likely take the Houthis out, the probability that the Americans will be able take the Chinese A2/AD networks out before those systems take out a US carrier in combat is low. 

That’s because of a pesky little thing known as math.

Understanding Aircraft Carrier Capabilities 

You see, the onboard defensive systems of US aircraft carriers or other surface warships, while impressive, are not infinite. They can, over time, be depleted. These systems are also fallible. They can miss incoming attacks.

Even if they do detect such attacks, the reality is that they might not be able to stop incoming attacks—especially if those attacks are coming in the form of missile, hypersonic weapons, and drone swarms. 

That is precisely what makes China’s A2/AD networks so lethal. Beijing has married its advanced manufacturing abilities to their requirement for overwhelming amounts of missiles directed against any approaching US Navy warships—including aircraft carriers. 

Even if the defenses aboard American warships are operating at peak levels, they will be unable to stop the overwhelming number of missiles that China will throw at these ships to keep them away from Chinese forces engaged in combat with an American ally (likely Taiwan).

The Attacks?

Earlier this year the United States Navy was faced with the prospects of one of its vaunted aircraft carriers, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, being destroyed by Houthi A2/AD systems. Luckily, the iconic carrier was fine.

It survived some of the tensest combat in its lifespan. Over the summer, there were rumors about the carrier having been seriously damaged by the Houthis. That did not end up happening.

What happened was that a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile cane within 200 meters of the boat. 

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is out from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images on the page come from Shutterstock or Creative Commons. 

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