Algeria increasingly looks like it was the mystery buyer that Russia's Rosoboronexport touted earlier this year for the Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting Felon). The foreign sales division of the state-controlled military-industrial conglomerate Rostec had presented the export version of the fifth-generation stealth fighter at the inaugural Egypt International Airshow in September and then at November's China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition. Both times it sought foreign buyers, and apparently it succeeded.

During the latter event in Zhuhai, China, Rosoboronexport CEO Alexander Mikheyev told Russian state media outlet Tass, "We have already signed the first contracts for the Su-57."

Experts, including those at The National Interest, quickly dismissed any notion that China was interested in the Su-57 as Beijing pulled out all the stops to showcase its Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon and Shenyang J-35. The People's Republic of China (PRC) has become only the second nation after the United States to field two fifth-gen fighters, and it doesn't need to turn to Moscow for a third—a point that was made even clearer after prototypes of suspected "sixth-generation" aircraft were spotted last month.

If China were to emerge as a buyer of the Su-57, it would likely only be to gather technology from the aircraft. Instead, all signs already pointed to Algeria—but a post on social media this week all but confirmed it.

"A high-ranking Russian government delegation is heading to Algeria," wrote the Russian Arms channel on the Telegram social messaging app on Thursday. "The likely agenda includes: concluding a military-technical cooperation agreement or signing contracts for the supply of advanced weapons, as well as discussing the fulfillment of the terms of the contract for the supply of 5th generation Su-57 fighters."

Algeria Operates Russian Hardware Already

The Algerian Air Force has long relied on Soviet/Russian military aircraft, and its fleet includes a mix of Mikoyan MiG-29 (NATO reporting name Fulcrum) and Sukhoi Su-30MKA (NATO reporting name Flanker-H) fighters, and even older Sukhoi Su-24 (NATO reporting name Fencer) tactical bombers.

It is likely that in addition to a small number of Su-57s, Algiers could turn to Moscow for additional Su-30s, and perhaps Sukhoi Su-35 Super Flankers to bolster its military aerial capabilities.

Should Algeria be the foreign buyer for the Su-57, it won't really come as a surprise. Algiers has expressed interest in the aircraft for years, and in 2020 the North African nation began to allocate the money to significantly modernize its military.

A North African Arms Race Is Brewing

Those efforts from Algeria to upgrade its air force come as neighbor and regional rival Morocco has also undergone a modernization effort, which included the acquisition of F-16C/D Fighting Falcon Block 72 fighters from the United States in 2019.

It was also in November that reports first circulated that Morocco could be on track to become the first Arab and African nation to acquire the U.S.-made Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II. Rabat had previously expressed interest in the fifth-generation stealth fighter, but it may push harder to acquire the Lightning II if Algeria obtains the Su-57.

Relations between the two North African nations remain strained; made worse late last year when Morocco reasserted ties with Israel for the first time since the Gaza war began. Morocco is now only the sixth Arab League nation that has normalized relations with the Jewish state.

Rabat's acquisition of the F-35 could help bolster ties with the United States—and may not face any serious objections from Israel, which maintains a security doctrine that has long prioritized qualitative superiority over neighbors and possible rivals. However, the two nations now have formalized relations, and Israeli personnel even participated in Morocco's African Lion military maneuvers in June 2023.

The North African Cold War that currently exists between Algeria and Morocco could see each side armed with fifth-gen fighters—which could be ominous if that Cold War turns hot. It would mark the first faceoff of the Felon and the Lightning II.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

Image: Wikimedia Commons.