What You Need to Know: Despite growing concerns over the viability of aircraft carriers in modern naval warfare due to sophisticated anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems, both India and China are heavily investing in their carrier programs. India, having acquired and modernized the Soviet-era INS Vikramaditya, is committed to expanding its carrier fleet to match China’s naval ambitions.

-This carrier race is driven by regional competition, as India seeks to maintain parity with China in the Indo-Pacific.

-Though A2/AD systems pose significant risks to carriers, both nations believe they can overcome these threats and are committed to building powerful naval forces.

Can Aircraft Carriers Survive in Modern Warfare? India and China Are Betting Yes

Military experts today are debating the usefulness of the aircraft carrier. With the creation of sophisticated anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems, the large surface warships that defined previous eras of naval warfare seem increasingly vulnerable and perhaps obsolete. Smaller, stealthier vessels, and possibly even unmanned underwater vehicles, appear to be the wave of the future. 

China has spent considerable wealth to build comprehensive A2/AD networks throughout the South China Sea and along China’s coastline. These systems are meant for one thing: to stunt the ability of the U.S. Navy to project its power near Chinese shores, or in regions of the Indo-Pacific that Beijing covets. Despite these systems, though, China has invested heavily in developing indigenous carrier capabilities. 

So, too, have the Indians. 

Aircraft Carrier Nightmare 

In 2004, the Indian Navy purchased an old Soviet-era aircraft carrier originally known as the Baku. After taking possession of the warship, the Indians renamed it the INS Vikramaditya. 

The Russians were more than happy to be rid of the carrier. Harrison Kass assessed that the Indians spent $800 billion upgrading the vessel and making it more combat-capable for the modern environment. India also threw more than $1 billion into the warship to upgrade the carrier’s aircraft and weapons systems.

The redevelopment of this carrier went about $1.2 billion over the original budget. Technologically, it was very hard to upgrade the systems, but at the end of it all, the carrier was modernized. Despite their difficulties with the Vikramaditya, the Indians remained committed to building out a carrier fleet. From the Vikramaditya, India learned about effective carrier flight deck operations, and their experiences set them up to purchase more aircraft.

Today, India is running another aircraft carrier, just as China is ramping up the production of its own carrier fleet. 

Does China know something that our defense planners don’t know? If A2/AD is about to render carriers obsolete, then why are China and India both developing these systems? As I have outlined previously, the reason China is developing these systems is because, in spite of the threat posed by A2/AD systems, China plans on operating its navy under the cover of A2/AD. 

Because China is doing it, India believes it needs a leg up. That is why, despite the advent of China’s advanced A2/AD capabilities, India continues pouring its resources into the country’s growing aircraft carrier fleet. India is developing its carrier program simply because China has been working on theirs, and India intends to keep parity with the Chinese. 

The INS Vikramaditya was a prototype for a much larger fleet of aircraft carriers that India planned on using. India has taken away key lessons and applied it, as you all heard, to shipbuilding. 

India is developing its third aircraft carrier. So, too, is China. One can suspect that for every Chinese carrier program announced, there will be an identical push from the Delhi government to match this capability.  

It is likely that India is anticipating having the ability to overcome A2/AD systems, and they are hoping to have a more thorough follow-on strike capability. It’s the same thinking that percolates through the minds of Beijing’s leaders. 

One thing is clear: The Indians are deeply committed to building a carrier force. At all costs.

About the Author

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons.