What You Need to Know: Israel maintains a covert but potent sea-based nuclear deterrent through its fleet of Dolphin-class submarines, acquired from Germany. Equipped with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, these diesel-electric submarines provide Israel with a second-strike capability, ensuring a retaliatory response in case of a nuclear attack.

-The recent addition of the INS Drakon to the fleet enhances this capability, potentially carrying larger and more advanced missiles, possibly even ballistic missiles with guided final stages. As tensions with Iran escalate, Israel's submarine-based nuclear arsenal serves as a critical deterrent.

-However, the prospect of nuclear conflict would be devastating for both nations, underscoring the importance of avoiding escalation and seeking peaceful solutions.

How Israel's Submarine Fleet Enhances Its Nuclear Deterrence

With the prospect of a major regional war erupting between Israel and Iran, there remains little said about the as-yet-acknowledged Israeli nuclear weapons program. Unofficially, everyone knows that the embattled Jewish democracy has it. 

Beyond that, however, the entire program is shrouded in secrecy. 

The most interesting aspect of the Israeli nuclear weapons program is its sea-based capability. That’s because, when one thinks of nuclear weapons-capable submarines, one usually harkens back to the glory days of the Cold War, when Soviet subs and American subs danced around each other with their nuclear-tipped sabers. Today, possibly, people include China in that dangerous club of nuclear powers with sea-based launch capabilities. 

One should include Israel in that club, too.

The Dolphin-class Submarine 

Israel possesses five Dolphin-class diesel-electric submarines. Purchased from the Germans, these submarines are believed to carry cruise missiles onboard that are nuclear-tipped. So, while the Israeli seaborne nuclear weapons launch capability is far smaller than those belonging to the Americans, Russians, and Chinese, when it comes to dealing with regional threats, the Israeli sea-based nuclear deterrent is highly effective. 

Especially because Israel’s big regional foe, Iran, still lacks miniaturization capabilities for their rudimentary (but growing) nuclear weapons arsenal. 

Thus, even if Iran (likely through its terrorist proxies) managed to launch a devastating attack on Israel, the Israelis would have a second-strike capability that the Iranians otherwise lack (for now) and against which the Iranians have limited defense. 

Of course, the recent introduction of advanced anti-missile defense systems provided to Iran by the Russian Federation could complicate the Israeli sea-based deterrent. Yet, these defensive systems, while they may complicate Israeli attack plans, are by no means fool-proof in the face of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. 

Israel’s flotilla of five Dolphin-class submarines is small. But, when operating in tandem, these subs can launch a combined 80 nuclear-tipped cruise missiles (16 cruise missiles per submarine). Each nuclear-tipped cruise missile is believed to deliver a 200 kiloton blast on their targets. What’s more, the size, maneuverability, and speed (roughly 25 knots) coupled with the ultra-quiet diesel-electric engines, means that tracking and destroying these submarines is very difficult (especially for Iran).

The Israelis have built up their Dolphin-class submarine force as the ultimate fail-safe. If all is lost, they know that the likelihood they can blast apart the attacker is very high (especially since Iran has a very limited naval capability). Indeed, with the prospect of a regional war erupting between Iran and Israel, the Iranian military is keenly aware that the Israelis have the capacity to totally decimate key targets deep within Iran, thanks to Israel’s small but potent flotilla of Dolphin-class subs. 

The INS Drakon

In fact, the Israelis have enhanced their submarine force beyond what they have already. In 2023, German builders in Kiel launched the INS Drakon (meaning, “Dragon”) and sent it to Israel. Last year, Israel took possession of this German-built boat. 

The key element of this new sub is that it carries with it larger, more advanced missiles. In other words, Israel will likely be able, with the Drakon, to launch higher-yield nuclear-tipped missiles that can probably travel faster and farther than Israel’s current arsenal of sea-based nuclear-tipped Tomahawk cruise missiles. 

Naval News has shared (though this is unconfirmed) reports that the Drakon is “likely to be longer, and feature a vertical launch system.” The publication also speculated (based on images of the submarine) that the new missiles on the Drakon will be ballistic missiles “possibly with a guided final stage.” What’s more, there are extra launch tubes on the submarine that Naval News has asserted will “dedicated to Israeli developed cruise missiles.” 

H.I. Sutton of Naval News further assesses that, “the new [ballistic] missiles are not a direct replacement for the cruise missiles.” Indeed, according to Sutton, “Possibly one set of missiles will be conventionally armed and the other nuclear armed. This would allow land attack missions while simultaneously maintaining a nuclear deterrence.” 

The bottom line in all this is that Israel is a nuclear dynamo. For all the talk from Iran about their ability to damage Israel—and they’ve got plenty of capabilities via their terrorist proxies—the fact remains that Israel has significant capabilities to utterly obliterate the Islamic Republic of Iran. The only real problem is that, for Israel to deploy those apocalyptic capabilities, it would likely mean the destruction of Israel and the end of the great hope that Israel represents for the global Jewish community. 

Nuclear War Isn’t Worth It

Thus, such a strike would be akin to bringing the temple down upon one’s head.

Israel and Iran need to avoid each other like the plague. Both regimes would be utterly decimated in the kind of conflict we are talking about here, regardless of whichever side “won” the engagement. Any victory would be pyrrhic and, therefore, useless.

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock.

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