Summary and Key Points: The delivery of American-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is a significant development, but their impact on the war might be limited. Ukraine needs around 130 F-16s to neutralize Russian air power, but the number received is much lower. The F-16, like the JAS 39 Gripen, is non-stealth, making it vulnerable to Russian air defenses.

-While both aircraft could be valuable in defensive roles, neither is likely to change the conflict's dynamics significantly without more substantial numbers and capabilities.

JAS 39 Gripen: The Fighter Jet Ukraine Needs? 

The big news out of Ukraine is the delivery of American-made F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv’s forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spent months lobbying for the fourth-generation fighters. Now the jets are finally ready for deployment against Russian aggressors.

“F-16s are in Ukraine. We did it. I am proud of our guys who are mastering these jets and have already started using them for our country,” Zelenskyy said. “These jets are in our sky and today you see them. It’s good that they are here and that we can put them to use.”

But the F-16 is unlikely to impact the war as much as Zelenskyy has advertised. Ukrainian officials have said Ukraine would need 130 F-16s just to neutralize Russia’s existing air assets. While the precise number of F-16s delivered to Ukraine has not been disclosed, we can be fairly certain that number is not 130. The result will be an F-16 force that is vulnerable to Russia’s air defense systems. 

Would another jet be more effective? Could Ukraine add something else in the NATO inventory, like the JAS 39 Gripen?

What About the JAS 39?

The F-16 has two shortcomings in Ukraine. First, the jet has not been supplied in numbers sufficient to tip the balance. Second, the F-16 is not a stealth aircraft. 

Let’s consider the supply issue first. To date, 4,604 F-16s have been built. They are in service with the United States and 25 other operating entities. The jet is prolific. The JAS 39, meanwhile, has been produced less than 300 times and is in service with just four air forces, two of them from NATO member-states. Ukraine could not turn to the JAS 39 to find the 130 airframes needed to neutralize Russian air power. That number would constitute nearly 50% of the type ever made and would need to come exclusively from Hungary and Sweden. That won’t happen. 

The F-16 is numerous and has long since proliferated throughout the NATO air force network, and Ukraine is still nowhere close to procuring the amount of F-16s needed to really make a difference against Russian air power. If Ukraine were to inherit the JAS 39, the limited numbers procured would make it a precious commodity, inspiring the kind of cautious use that would limit the jet’s impact on the outcome of the conflict.  

The second problem is that the JAS 39, like the F-16, is a non-stealth fighter. The Russian military has many deficiencies, but air defense does not seem to be one of them. Non-stealth fighters would not be survivable against Russian air defenses, meaning the JAS 39 would need to avoid frontline and behind-frontline operations. 

The JAS 39, like the F-16, would be limited to a more defensive role. This is valuable, of course, but unlikely to lead Russian forces to abandon Ukrainian territory.

About the Author: Harrison Kass, Defense Expert 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.  

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