North Korea’s ambitious weapons programs continue their long march forward, even as South Korea implodes and the United States becomes increasingly distracted. As the world was celebrating the start of a new year, the Japanese Defense Ministry reported that Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile that blasted its way over to the Sea of Japan. 

The Japanese Defense Ministry assessed that the launch fell “outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone, with no damage to planes or ships.”

Of course, that only tells half the story.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff have concluded that the weapon North Korea tested over the Sea of Japan may have been an experimental hypersonic weapon as opposed to an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). And if that’s the case, then the whole world has a major problem on its hands. Because, as it stands, only the Russians and Chinese have any semblance of working hypersonic weapons in their arsenals (with the Russians being the most advanced in hypersonic weapons).

Nothing has been confirmed as to whether the weapon North Korea fired was a hypersonic weapon or an IRBM. What is known is that the weapon traveled around 683 miles with a ceiling of around 62 feet. North Korea has long intimated that it was working on advanced hypersonic weapons.

Specifically, according to Kyodo News, Pyongyang has claimed to be developing “missiles tipped with hypersonic warheads, designed to travel at more than five times the speed of sound [that can] follow low-altitude trajectories and evade detection by changing direction mid-flight.”

Did Russia Help North Korea?

The increasingly close relationship between North Korea and Russia, the world’s leader in practical hypersonic weapons, could mean that, in exchange for North Korea sending its troops to help Russia fight against NATO-backed Ukraine, Russia gave advanced weapons technology to Pyongyang. 

Given that large numbers of North Koreans have been committed to the fight and that, for many years since the war began in 2022, the North Koreans have supplied large numbers of weapons and ammunition to Russia, Pyongyang is probably receiving technical assistance with hypersonic weapons development from Russia.

Thus, the Ukraine war has created yet another threat vector with which the United States was unprepared to contend. Alas, this is the nature of our current moment. The Americans take an utterly irresponsible and implacable stance on what should be an ancillary issue (to Washington), like Ukraine, and effectively help to create one of the greatest coalitions of anti-American powers in Eurasia since the Axis Powers existed in World War II. 

The only reason that North Korea even likely has some form of a hypersonic weapon is because the Ukraine war has forced the Russians to embrace Pyongyang as a matter of course. 

Russia is waging an existential war in Ukraine and it needs allies. North Korea needs military technology to stay ahead of Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Therefore, it’s all quite congruous.

Plus, by developing hypersonic weapons and testing them before the presidential changeover in the United States, North Korea has a significant bargaining chip to use whenever the new Trump administration comes looking to continue their previous diplomacy with Kim Jong-un.

Understanding What’s at Stake

For his part, Kim Jong-un has stated that the system tested over the Sea of Japan was a hypersonic missile. According to a speech he gave shortly after the test, “The hypersonic missile will reliably contain any rivals in the Pacific region that can affect the security of our state.” 

This makes sense. 

After all, there are no viable defenses against modern hypersonic weapons. Some have speculated that the U.S. Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) platform could potentially knock out incoming hypersonic weapons. But there are not enough of these systems available. Further, using THAAD against hypersonic weapons is entirely unproven.

Western analysts remain skeptical. They highlight recent failures involving North Korea’s Hwasong-16 IRBM, leading them to question how Pyongyang could have possibly perfected an even more complex system. Again, though, the likelihood that Russia (or China) helped the North Korean program along could answer some of these questions from skeptical Western observers. 

Plus, having been shown up significantly by tiny North Korea, it is highly unlikely that any major power would want to admit that publicly. Especially since the hypersonic weapons programs of the West are so far behind those of the autocratic Eurasian powers.

Trump Faces an Entirely New North Korea in 2025

When he is sworn in as president, Donald J. Trump is likely going to be faced with a much different North Korean threat than when he was president the first time around.

If North Korea has mastered hypersonic weapons, and if Pyongyang can mass produce them quickly enough, then the next Trump-Kim spat might not end so amicably for the United States. It’s time for the Americans to take hypersonic weapons development far more seriously. In fact, the moment is now for Washington truly develop anti-hypersonic weapon defenses.

Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

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