Ukrainian Counterattacks  

The Ukrainian military launched a series of localized counterattacks in the Kursk Oblast in an attempt to throw off balance the Russian offensive efforts to eradicate the Ukrainian salient.  

Over the weekend, the Ukrainian military conducted several company-sized mechanized assaults against the Russian and North Korean forces in Kursk.  

“Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in at least three areas within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and made tactical advances on January 5,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest estimate of the Ukrainian conflict. 

Since early August, the Ukrainian military has controlled hundreds of square miles of territory and dozens of settlements inside Russia after its surprise foray into Kursk. The offensive was a strategic risk at a time when Russian pressures along the contact in Ukraine were increasing. 

Now, six months later, the strategic value of the Ukrainian salient in Russia remains low, especially if we consider that in exchange for maintaining a foothold in Russia, Kyiv has lost several hundred square miles of Ukrainian territory.  

However, it is clear that the Ukrainian leadership is invested in the success of its Kursk adventure, and continues to dedicate forces, weapon systems, and resources in that part of the battlefield.  

The Russian Response  

Meanwhile, hundreds of miles to the south, the Russian forces are increasing their pressure against Pokrovsk in a clear attempt to surround and capture the urban center as soon as possible.  

For the better part of three months now, the Russian military has been throwing men and weapon systems against Pokrovsk. A key logistics hub, Pokrovsk is important to the Ukrainian military for both offensive and defensive operations.  

“Russian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk amid renewed offensive operations in the area likely aimed at supporting the envelopment of Pokrovsk from the northeast,” the Institute for the Study of War added.  

A think tank based in Washington, D.C., the Institute for the Study of War has been providing daily, accurate analysis of the strategic, operational, and tactical aspects of the conflict.  

The Russian military has made significant tactical advances over the past six months, capturing important points on the battlefield, such as Vuhledar, Kurakhove, Niu York, and Marinka. A potential occupation of Pokrovsk would bring the Russian forces closer to complete control of the Donetsk Oblast and the whole of the Donbas, comprised of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts at least.  

With the prospect of peace negotiations sometime within 2025 looking increasingly likely, the Russian leadership seems to be trying to gain as much territory as possible to strengthen its negotiating hand. After all, the Kremlin has stipulated that it wants five Ukrainian provinces (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea) to be incorporated into Russia.  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image Credit: Shutterstock.