Summary and 5 Key Points You Need to Know: The Russian military has suffered significant losses in the Ukraine war, with casualties exceeding 630,000 troops. Despite an impressive force generation capability over 940 days of fighting, Russia is struggling to replenish its ranks.

-The Kremlin has used various tactics, including recruiting prison inmates, minorities, and foreign mercenaries, but its recruitment rates appear to be declining.

-Current estimates suggest Russia is recruiting around 1,000 troops daily, a number barely offsetting its high daily casualty rate, which often exceeds 1,000.

-To attract more recruits, the Russian Ministry of Defense has increased sign-on bonuses, making military service more lucrative than many civilian jobs. However, this strategy is costly, accounting for about 8% of federal spending.

Russia's Manpower Crisis: Are Kremlin Forces Running Out of Troops?

The Russian military is taking extremely heavy losses that very likely exceed 630,000 men. 

The Kremlin has been able to replenish its heavy losses until now. However, that might not be the case anymore. 

Is Russia Running Out of Troops?

The Kremlin has shown a remarkable force generation capability, feeding the furnaces of war with fresh troops for almost 940 days of brutal fighting. To do so, Kremlin officials have had to think creatively. 

At one point, Moscow relied heavily on prison inmates who signed up for service on the frontlines in exchange for promises of freedom. Many died within days at the front. The Kremlin has also been “recruiting” heavily among minorities working in Russia.

In addition, Moscow has been paying hefty sums to mercenaries from across the world, including in Cuba, Mali, and Syria, to fight on its behalf. 

However, it is increasingly becoming the case that Russian officials are running out of men to press into service. 

“It is likely that Russian military recruitment rates in 2024 have decreased compared to rates achieved in 2023,” British Military Intelligence assessed in a recent estimate on the war.

The Russian military has conscription, but Russian President Vladimir Putin for political reasons has been very careful not to overtly push young conscripts into Ukraine. 

“Russian officials suggested in late 2023 that the Russian MOD [Ministry of Defense] was recruiting at a rate of around 1,600 daily. However, publicly cited figures this year put that rate at around 1,000 daily,” British Military Intelligence added. “These figures are themselves probably inflated to an extent.”

Western intelligence estimates put the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, including on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, at around 500,000.

For almost 150 days now, the Russian military has been taking more than 1,000 casualties every day. So despite recruiting more than 1,000 men daily, there is little to no net benefit for the Russian forces, which are used as cannon fodder by their leaders. 

For example, over the past 24 hours, the Russian military, paramilitary forces, and pro-Russian separatists took approximately 1,020 killed, wounded, and captured, according to the latest data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. (Western intelligence estimates largely corroborate Kyiv’s assessments of Russian casualties.) Over the past seven days, Russian forces have taken approximately 8,200 casualties, or about 1,171 losses a day.  

To attract more men, the Russian military has been handing out hefty sign-on bonuses. Sometimes, these bonuses are in the thousands of dollars and outstrip anything a potential recruit would make for several months working a job in Russia. 

“This has led the Russian MOD to increase sign-on bonuses in August 2024, an increasingly expensive recruitment strategy for Russia. Estimates suggest military personnel payments amounted to around 8% of federal spending in the year to June 2024. Payment increases will nonetheless probably bolster recruitment levels for the remainder of the year,” British Military Intelligence added. 

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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