After Russia’s convoy stalled outside of Kyiv, Russian forces do appear to be moving east and north in what could be seen as a decided shift in emphasis in advance of an escalated ground attack.

Pentagon officials say Russia’s “repositioning” of small portions of its forces surrounding Kyiv likely pertains to a deliberate shift to the east, meaning Putin may in fact be seeking to secure gains in the Donbas, where pro-Russian separatists have been fighting Ukrainians for many years.

"It's clear the Russians want to reprioritize their operations in the Donbas area [and] that could be one destination, but again, [it's] too soon to know,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Thursday.

Do the Russians hope to secure eastern Ukraine before moving more aggressively into the west? While it is impossible to say for certain, Russian forces are likely to have more familiarity with areas occupied by pro-Kremlin separatist groups in the east. However, Pentagon officials cautioned that although Russia may seem to have a historical presence and strong numerical force advantage in the Donbas region, these factors may not translate into battlefield success or measurable gains on the ground.

“It's been a conflict that [has] been fought over now for eight years. The Ukrainians know the territory very, very well, they have a lot of forces still there, and they're absolutely fighting very hard for that area, as they have over the last eight years. It's been a hot war there for eight years,” a senior Pentagon official told reporters on Thursday. “So just because they're going to prioritize it and put more force there or more energy there doesn't mean it's going to be easy for them.”

The intensity of the Russian effort to capture Mariupol, Pentagon officials have said, may reflect a deliberate effort to create a coastal corridor linking the Ukrainian coastline from Crimea and the Black Sea up through the Sea of Azov. This could create an uninterrupted Russian presence across a wide coastal area, leading all the way to the Donbas.

To support this effort, Russia has been firing cruise missiles into land targets from surface warships operating in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The senior Pentagon official was clear that there are no indications of any upcoming amphibious attacks or increased Russian naval activity outside of the handful of surface warships in the Black Sea.

Kris Osborn is the Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master’s Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

Image: Reuters.