The Kursk Offensive Looks Like a Big Deal: Ukraine's recent offensive into Russian territory, particularly in the Kursk region, has shifted the focus of the conflict, catching the Kremlin off guard. Unlike previous smaller-scale incursions, Ukraine's use of heavy brigades and its ability to hold ground has destabilized the Russian military's defenses.

-Ukrainian forces have reportedly captured close to 30 settlements and pushed 25 miles into Russia. The offensive has forced Russia to consider the entire northeastern border as an active frontline, leading to civilian evacuations in Belgorod Oblast.

-Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to suffer significant casualties, with estimates approaching 600,000 losses.

Ukraine's Bold Push into Russia: A Game-Changer in the Conflict?

Ukraine’s foray into Russia has upended the conflict. The stalemated frontline now gives priority to the fighting inside Russia. 

The Russian Response 

Like the rest of the world, the Kremlin was caught off guard by Ukraine’s maneuver. The Ukrainian military briefly attacked Russia at least twice in the past, but this offensive was remarkably different. To begin with, the Ukrainians used experienced heavy brigades instead of a battalion-sized force and special operators. Ukrainian forces are still there almost a week later, showing a desire to hold ground. 

The Russian military has managed to somewhat stabilize the front in Kursk. But Ukraine has captured dozens of settlements and inflicted heavy losses on the Russian units sent to stop them.

According to Russian estimates, Ukrainian forces control close to 30 settlements in Kursk and have reached as far as 25 miles into Russia. 

The Russian government is also evacuating civilians from Belgorod Oblast, which neighbors Kursk Oblast, where most of the fighting is taking place. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public assertion that the Russian military will expel Ukrainian forces, the Kremlin was forced to perform these evacuations. 

“Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast has allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily seize the battlefield initiative in one area of the frontline and contest Russia's theater-wide initiative,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest estimate of the war. 

One of the most likely motivations behind the decision to invade Russia was to force the Kremlin to relocate forces from the contact line in Ukraine. It is estimated that there are around 500,000 Russian troops in Ukraine, including in Crimea. 

“The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast and further possible Ukrainian cross-border incursions force a decision point on the Kremlin and the Russian military command about whether to view the thousand-kilometer-long international border with northeastern Ukraine as a legitimate frontline that Russia must defend instead of a dormant area of the theater as they have treated it since Fall 2022,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote. 

“Moscow’s response may require the Russian military command to consider the manpower and materiel requirements for defending the international border as part of its theater-wide campaign design and can therefore impose long-term operational planning constraints that Russia previously did not face,” the Institute assessed. 

Russian Casualties

Meanwhile, Russian forces took heavy casualties for another day. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours Russian forces lost approximately 1,080 men killed, wounded, or captured. Moreover, the Russian military and pro-Russian separatist forces lost around 73 unmanned aerial systems; 68 artillery guns and multiple launch rocket systems; 66 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks; 5 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers; 3 main battle tanks’ 1 cruise missile; 1 piece of special equipment; and 1 air defense system. 

Overall, the Russian forces have lost close to 600,000 men. If the current rate of casualties remains fairly constant, Moscow will have lost close to 700,000 troops by the end of the year. 

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.