The Mud Is Coming to the Ukraine War: Russian forces are pushing for small tactical gains in Ukraine before the impending muddy season halts large-scale mechanized operations. The shift to positional warfare over rapid maneuvers underscores Russia's struggle to achieve strategic success, despite increased recent advances.

-According to the Institute for the Study of War, the pace of progress remains slow, with minimal operational gains compared to Russia's initial incursion. Meanwhile, systemic corruption challenges continue to plague Russia’s military, with Major General Alexander Ogloblin facing his second arrest on embezzlement charges.

-This stagnation and internal dysfunction paint a challenging picture for Moscow’s military ambitions in Ukraine.

Russian Troops Race Against Ukraine’s Muddy Season as Tactical Gains Stall

The Russian forces might be making some progress on the ground, but on a strategic level, the Russian military is moving at a snail’s pace, showcasing its inability to conduct modern maneuver warfare on a large-scale.

Moscow is throwing men and weapon systems into the meatgrinder in an attempt to achieve some tactical gains before the onset of bad weather prevents free movement.

A Push Before the Mud

Every year, there is a period between the end of fall and the start of winter in Ukraine when rain turns the ground into a muddy pit. Every time this happens, the battlefield becomes largely inaccessible to large-scale mechanized forces and operations grind to a halt. To be sure, there is still fighting, but it is much harder for either side to make any progress due to the adverse weather conditions. The Russian military is now pushing hard to make some progress before the muddy season arrives.

“The rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has increased in recent weeks but remains slow and consistent with positional warfare rather than with rapid mechanized maneuver—emphasizing how generally stagnant Russian advances have been after over two and half years of war,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict.

The upcoming muddy season in Ukraine will turn the battlefield into a bog and seriously frustrate mechanized operations. As we have assessed here at The National Interest before, the Russian military is very likely trying to utilize the time before the onset of the muddy season to make some tactical gains.

“The current rate of Russian advances is consistent, rather, with ISW's recent assessment that the Russian command has likely ordered Russian forces to significantly increase their tempo of mechanized attacks throughout the theater before the full onset of muddy ground conditions in the fall months,” the Institute for the Study of War added.

Once winter arrives and the ground freezes, mechanized operations will once more be possible. But until the temperatures drop, both sides are at the mercy of the rain and mud.

But although the Russian forces have captured some small urban centers and are edging closer to more, on an operational level, their progress is minimal and by no means compared to their initial advances in the opening weeks of the conflict.

“Rapid Russian advances deep into Ukrainian territory, including the temporary seizure of large portions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts characterized the first month of the Russian full-scale invasion, whereas more recent Russian advances have been characterized by small-scale, localized, tactical advances,” the Institute for the Study of War stated.

Corruption Charges

Meanwhile, Russia might be engaged in its largest conflict since the end of World War Two, but its armed forces remain dysfunctional.

Amidst a conflict that costs more than 1,300 casualties every day, a high ranking Russian officer has been arrested on corruption charges.

General Major Alexander Ogloblin, a former confidant of the former Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, has been arrested for a second time on embezzlement charges.

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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