At the end of the day, Russia wants to maintain its political influence over Belarus, just as Belarus wants to maintain its access to the Russian market to keep its economy afloat. Given this mutual codependence, the neighbors are still most likely to eventually find a manageable middle-ground. For Minsk, such a compromise will have to preserve its ability to act independently and expand economic ties with the West — and one that Russia will have to accept, lest risk having another key partner slip from its sphere of influence.

Russia's Oil Salvo Prompts Belarus to Explore Its Options is republished with the permission of Stratfor Worldview, a geopolitical intelligence and advisory firm.

Image: Reuters.