Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Air Force is reconsidering its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, largely due to its cost and complexity.

-Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall acknowledged that maintaining the existing F-22 Raptor fleet may be more practical, especially given the U.S.'s growing debt crisis.

-The F-22 remains one of the world’s most advanced warplanes, far surpassing competitors like China’s J-20.

-Instead of developing a new sixth-generation fighter like NGAD, Kendall suggests updating the F-22 with the ability to deploy drones, known as "loyal wingmen," to enhance its combat capabilities.

-This approach would be more cost-effective than starting from scratch with NGAD.

The Air Force is Finally Talking About Updating the F-22

For the first time in a very long time, the U.S. Department of Defense is rethinking the production of a costly, complex system that will be nearly impossible to mass-produce and will fail to deliver its promised results on the battlefield. 

“We are taking another look at the [Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD] platform itself, and before we make the commitment that we’re close to making, we want to make sure we get the right design concept here.” Those were the words spoken in July by Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall at the Royal International Air Tattoo show. For the uninitiated, that’s Pentagonese for “Holy cow we really can’t afford this plane!” 

And they can’t afford it. 

In fact, the United States is likely entering into a debt crisis, and the defense budget is a top-five federal expenditure. 

What’s the NGAD Program?

The NGAD program is slated to produce the U.S. Air Force’s next primary warplane. It would belong to the sixth-generation warplane family. The F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Lightning II both belong to the fifth-generation warplane family of systems and remain lightyears ahead of most major competition. 

Interestingly, Kendall finally admitted that which I have been screaming at the rooftops about: the Air Force is entertaining notions of maintaining its obscenely small F-22 fleet as the “main option for air dominance for the foreseeable future.” This is a wise move. After all, the F-22 remains the most advanced warplane in the world. 

There truly isn’t anything like it. China’s Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon gets into the ballpark but remains untested and is likely nowhere near as capable. Its real advantage is that it can be mass-produced, whereas the Obama administration foolishly shut the F-22’s production line down in 2010. 

The Use of Drones in Air Combat

One of the reasons that Kendall cited for being reticent to commit fully to the NGAD is the evolution of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) – essentially, next-generation drones. 

The drones are what the Pentagon calls the “loyal wingmen.” Warplanes will be able to launch drone swarms to augment their lethality in combat. These craft are both advanced and relatively affordable 

The hope is to eventually have these loyal wingmen run off advanced artificial intelligence systems that will make them behave as though they are piloted by human beings.

Just Update the F-22 and Scrap the NGAD Program

In fact, the CCA is what makes the proposed NGAD bird so unique. Sure, the sixth-generation plane has better support systems, like more efficient engines and slightly better stealth than the F-22 or F-35. 

But these enhancements are marginal and not at all worth the cost and time that will be invested into the development of the manned sixth-generation warplanes. Especially when the F-22 remains such a potent warplane, and likely will for at least the next 20 years.

Kendall is right to embrace this reality check that his service simply cannot afford the much-ballyhooed NGAD plane. The Air Force should instead work to adapt the existing F-22 fleet with the capability to launch advanced drones to serve as loyal wingmen. 

There is no reason why the F-22 cannot be made to do this.

That would be a much more efficient and cost-effective thing to do than to start from scratch and attempt to build the wünderwaffe. 

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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