Summary and Key Words: Russian President Vladimir Putin has frequently threatened the use of nuclear weapons during the Ukraine conflict, particularly in response to Western support for Ukraine.

-These threats imply the potential use of either strategic or tactical nuclear strikes.

-Recent drills with Belarus showcased tactical nuclear weapons, highlighting Putin's willingness to use them.

-Tactical nukes have lower yields and are intended for localized military gains, unlike strategic nukes which target broader destruction.

-With a significant stockpile, Russia could theoretically use tactical nukes if it perceives its sovereignty as threatened, especially in the context of Ukraine.

-However, actual use remains unlikely due to the severe global repercussions.

Could Russia Use Tactical Nukes in Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not shied away from threatening to use nuclear weapons for any number of reasons. He has turned to such threats since the opening days of the war in Ukraine. 

Typically, these threats follow instances of Western support for Ukraine, such as easing restrictions on using donated weapons systems to attack Russian territory. The threats don’t specify exactly how nukes might be used, but Russia would have two main options: strategic or tactical strikes. 

Recent drills conducted by Russia and Belarus showcased tactical nuclear weapons and presumably were intended to reinforce the perception that Putin is willing to use them.

What Are Tactical Nukes?

When considering nuclear strikes, most laypeople probably envision a massive fireball engulfing an entire city. This would be an example of a strategic attack, aimed at degrading an enemy’s ability and motivation to wage war. These attacks are the cornerstone of nuclear deterrence theory; the price of waging war against a nation capable of such destruction is far too steep for anyone to bear. 

Tactical strikes are aimed at attriting enemy forces and achieving limited, local gains. The warheads used are of far lower yield than their strategic brethren, on the order of less than 1 to 50 kilotons. Successive nonproliferation treaties and changes in doctrine have significantly reduced the U.S. stockpile of such weapons to a few hundred. The two variants now available are both gravity bombs that would require months of preparation before use. 

By contrast, Russia maintains a significant stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons, with estimates at more than 1,800.

How Might Putin Use Them in Ukraine?

Russian nuclear doctrine under Putin has evolved to become more aggressive since the 2000s. 

Under current doctrine, the use of nuclear weapons is permitted when Russian “sovereignty and independence” is threatened. This bellicose language could easily be interpreted to apply to the situation in Ukraine. The farcical referendum Russia held in 2022 to annex the occupied Ukrainian territories means that as far as Moscow is concerned, those parts of Ukraine are sovereign Russian territory. As such, should the Armed Forces of Ukraine, bolstered by Western weapons, begin to retake their territory, Russian doctrine would allow the use of tactical nuclear weapons. 

Using Nukes to Win the War?

Ultimately, any rhetoric around the use of nuclear weapons must be taken seriously.  However, it seems unlikely Putin would pre-emptively use tactical nuclear weapons in an attempt to “win” the war in Ukraine. Such use is contradictory to nearly every nuclear doctrine around the world and would draw the harshest global response. 

If, however, Putin elects to use tactical nuclear strikes to stem a major Ukrainian breakthrough and force negotiations that would see Ukraine cede some its territory, that could be construed as a “win” for Putin, who is currently bogged down in the third year of a grueling conflict that shows no sign of ceasing. Such a scenario represents the most likely case that would see the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Even that would be a massive escalation that would doubtless come with major consequences.

About the Author: Maya Carlin 

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. 

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