Summary: Turkey's TAI TF Kaan, a 5th-generation fighter jet prototype, successfully completed its maiden flight, marking a milestone for the Turkish defense industry. Despite this achievement, the TF Kaan program faces significant challenges and operational capability remains years away. Launched in 2016, the program aims to replace the F-16 Fighting Falcons, with expectations for a second prototype by 2025 and an initial batch of 20 aircraft by decade's end. This development follows Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 system. The TF Kaan, touted as a domestic endeavor, relies on international collaboration and technology, including the General Electric F110 engine and partnership with British BAE Systems. Additionally, economic concerns loom large, as the depreciating Turkish Lira could inflate the program's costs significantly, challenging Turkey's defense budget and the project's financial feasibility. Ankara targets a 2040 operational capability with a fleet of 300 aircraft.

TAI TF Kaan: Turkey's Big Stealth Fighter Dream, Explained

Turkey’s 5th generation fighter jet took to the skies for the first time. 

The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced that the TF Kaan prototype completed its maiden flight on Wednesday. 

Notwithstanding the maiden flight of the fighter jet, the TF Kaan program is plagued by difficulties, while an operational capability is many years away. 

TF Kaan: Maiden Flight 

On Wednesday, the prototype of the TF Kaan took off for its maiden flight alongside a F-16 Fighting Falcon for support. The flight was short, and the prototype landed back safely. 

“We experienced one of the proud days of the Turkish defense industry. Our homegrown combat aircraft, KAAN, successfully completed its maiden flight today. Türkiye crossed another critical threshold in producing a fifth-generation fighter jet,” Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said. 

The TF Kaan program began in 2016, and the aircraft is eventually slated to replace the F-16 Fighting Falcon. Turkey expects to have a second prototype by 2025 and an initial batch of 20 aircraft by the end of the decade. 

The development of the aircraft comes in response to losing the F-35 Lighting II. 

The U.S. kicked Turkey out of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in 2019 after years of anti-American and anti-Western behavior by Ankara and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. The last straw was Turkey’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 Trumpf air defense system, thus violating the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

In addition to Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan have expressed a desire to join the TF Kaan program. 

Although Turkey is advertising the TF Kaan as a product of Turkish ingenuity and manufacturing, it is already outsourcing major components and technology elsewhere.

For example, the Turkish Ministry of Defense has made a request to the Pentagon for the joint production of the General Electric F110 engine—the same used by the F-16 Fighting Falcon—for use in the new fighter jet. Moreover, the Turkish military is working with the British BAE Systems in the development of the TF Kaan. 

The Economic Consideration 

Another consideration for the TAI TF Kaan program is costs. 

Over the past few years, the Turkish Lira has undergone a devastating devaluation compared to the U.S. Dollar. Currently, $1 is the equivalent of 31 Turkish Lira, which means that 1 Turkish Lira equals $0.032. Considering that almost 15 years ago, the exchange rate was 1 Turkish Lira for $0.85, the Turkish economy is doing very poorly. And when it comes to defense projects, that economic weakness translates into higher, almost crippling, costs. 

If the TF Kaan program, for example, cost $1 billion, Turkey would have to pay 31 billion Turkish Lira. A 5th generation fighter jet aircraft with lots of technology from the West is going to cost considerably more than $1 billion. As a result, total costs for Turkey could easily skyrocket to more than 100 billion Turkish Lira.

To be sure, Ankara has expressed an intent to spend $40 billion on its defense in 2024, and the TAI TF Kaan would only comprise a small part of that, with costs spread over several years. But the Turkish military would still need to spend much more than it would otherwise do for a capability that might be outdated when it rolls out in numbers in about 15 years.

Ankara is aiming for an operational capability by 2040 and a fleet of 300 aircraft. 

About the Author  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. Email the author: [email protected].