The Phase One trade deal finalized earlier this week has resolved a few areas of dispute between the two largest economies in the world. But President Trump’s hawkish trade adviser, Peter Navarro, says much remains to be done. And that includes dealing with the illicit opioid trade, and especially the trade in the potentially lethal fentanyl and fentanyl analogs.

Last year it seemed as though fentanyl control would be a key part of any agreement with China. Market analysts like CNBC’s Jim Cramer even suggesting a lack of agreement could derail the talks.

But I’m guessing it was not included for two reasons. The first is that the opioid crisis is no longer the issue it was (at least not in terms of media coverage), deaths have stabilized and started to fall and attention has switched to impeachment, Iran, etc. But second, and more substantively, I suspect that Beijing has finally explained, or more likely convinced the White House, that it cannot actually control its chemical industry. It could crack down on chemical production if it really wanted to, but this would be a major disruptor to its economy. Isolating those producers just making illicit fentanyl is impossible because fentanyl production has already largely gone underground.

It’s possible that a Phase Two deal will address fentanyl, but it may quietly drift away, subsumed by larger political and economic priorities.

This article in AEIdeas appeared on January 17, 2020.

Image: Reuters.