A U.S.-China war is not inevitable, but it is increasingly likely.

While recent choices such as an overuse of sanctions, mutual economic decoupling, and political stunts like needless visits to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi or the cancellation of G20 attendance by Xi Jinping have raised tensions, the U.S. still has time and options to change its trajectory.

It can work to preserve economic coupling with China, maintain strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan, improve cybersecurity to stay technologically ahead, elevate regional cooperation to protect Taiwan and the South China Sea, and avoid costly foreign engagements to preserve national strength.

But these and any other measures are just short-term solutions that China can circumvent because, ultimately, the long-term answer to the China problem lies in resolving issues under the surface at home, not just in policy abroad.

The success of effective foreign policy and national defense - the kind that deters war and incentivizes peace with China in the long term while promoting a strong America -  is dependent on consistency, loyalty, responsibility, and transparency in execution. Yet, with endless investigations of corruption, foreign interference, compromised voting integrity, and moral destitution on all sides of the American political aisle, it is clear that many if not most in Washington lack these qualities. With leaders like this, China simply won’t be discouraged by American military actions alone.

American immunity to Chinese subversion like the fentanyl crisis and free-speech censorship or propaganda in universities and media is contingent on strong communities, families, and smart individuals of moral character. But as society becomes increasingly epicurean, distractions like culture wars, moral divisions, partisanship, and consumerism produce susceptible people who don’t possess the capacity to resist China’s pressures. With weaknesses like this, China won’t ever be convinced by American shows of strength overseas that it should do anything other than try harder to upset American power through other means.

Truly deterring China is not the unidimensional task many geopolitical pundits paint it to be of making the right military and economic threats in the right places at the right times. It doesn’t just require strength projection abroad with bases in the Philippines and more ships in the Taiwan Strait. It involves strength projection from home as well, in the form of strong communities and families that can resist all forms of Chinese pressures and produce competent, committed leaders capable of rebuffing Chinese advances and following through on good foreign policy. Otherwise, China will only ever see American strategic endeavors as temporary setbacks that can be overcome with the proper applications of force over the proper amount of time… and they’ll be right.

As such, strengthening the foundational moral fabric of American society is not only a foundational requirement for resisting Chinese subversion, but also necessary for truly realizing effective foreign policy. This truth is echoed unironically in a line from the ancient Confucian text, DaXue, which says “To put the world in order, we must first put the nation in order; to put the nation in order, we must first put the family in order; to put the family in order; we must first cultivate our personal life; we must first set our hearts right.”

Any strategic prescriptions or genuinely good ideas enacted without addressing the underlying weaknesses in American society and government will just be like sending out ships full of holes; they will be well-intended actions that may be effective for a short time, but in the end only serve to mask the symptoms of our collision course with China until it's too late.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.