The AUKUS pact, in which the United States agreed in principle to share nuclear submarine technology with Australia, has been the subject of extreme controversy abroad. China, the pact’s clear target, has reacted with hostility, describing it as aggressive and suggesting that it could raise the risk of war in the Pacific. At the same time, France, whose defense contractor, Naval Group, had previously signed an agreement to construct diesel-electric submarines for the Australian Navy, was outraged when that agreement was abruptly canceled as a result of the pact. In the aftermath, Paris withdrew its ambassadors to the United States and Australia. Following a call between President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, the French ambassador to the United States returned to Washington, but the ambassador to Australia has no plans to return.

The controversy and ill will that the agreement has caused abroad has likely been detrimental to Australia’s strategic interests. However, a majority of Australians continue to support it, according to a poll conducted by the Guardian.

The poll was conducted with more than 1,000 Australians, who were asked to agree or disagree with the notion that Australia was correct to pursue the AUKUS pact. Sixty-two percent agreed. An additional fifty-four percent agreed that the partnership was “in Australia’s best security and economic interests.”

However, most of the poll’s respondents expressed reservations about the way that the agreement had been rolled out. Fifty-five percent worried that the pact would increase Australia’s tensions with China—a relationship that had already been under strain due to perceived Chinese influence in Canberra, as well as disputes over responsibility for the COVID-19 pandemic.  

In addition to concerns about the agreement’s impact on China, a near-majority—forty-eight percent—were concerned that French furor over the deal could upset Australia’s trade deals with the European Union.

Perhaps tellingly, when asked whether the AUKUS partnership was likely to make Australia more secure, only forty-five percent responded in the affirmative—with the remaining respondents either saying there would be no change or it would make Australia less secure.

Australia faces its next federal election in the next eight months. Per the country’s constitution, it must take place on or before May 21, 2022. Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who helped to guide the AUKUS deal through, faces a challenge from Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese.

Trevor Filseth is a current and foreign affairs writer for the National Interest.

Image: Reuters