Scientists at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have reached out to UK health officials to review data that say that the new coronavirus variant is more deadly. 

Previous reports have contended that the mutant virus is between 30 percent and 70 percent more transmissible but does not seem to be more lethal. However, a new UK report released on Friday stated that there is “a realistic possibility” that the new variant, also known as B.1.1.7, could eventually produce higher death rates than other strains.  

“We’ve been informed that in addition to spreading more quickly . . . there is some evidence that the new variant . . . may be more associated with a higher degree of mortality,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a news conference.

The UK’s chief scientific advisor, Patrick Vallance, added that more evidence was needed to make a clear call on the new variant but did note that the data is pointing toward a higher mortality rate.  

“If you took . . .  a man in their sixties, the average risk is that for one thousand people who got infected, roughly ten would be expected to, unfortunately, die with the virus. With the new variant, for one thousand people infected, roughly thirteen or fourteen people might be expected to die,” he said.

“That’s the sort of change for that sort of age group, an increase from ten to thirteen or fourteen out of a thousand and you will see that across the different age groups as well, a similar sort of relative increase in the risk.”

Recent modeling from the CDC has revealed that the mutant virus has the potential to become the predominant variant in the United States by March. Already, about two hundred cases have been identified in more than twenty states.

“The data is mounting—and some of it I can’t share—that clearly supports that B.1.1.7 is causing more severe illness and increased death,” Dr. Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota and member of President Joe Biden’s coronavirus transition team, said in an interview over the weekend with CNN.  

“Already, we know this variant has increased transmission, and so this is more very bad news.”

White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci cautioned on Fox News that the new variant’s effects on vaccine efficacy remain unknown, but he was confident that those effects would be minimal.  

“When we look at the effect of the chain, this lineage that is the UK lineage that is in at least twenty states in the U.S., the vaccine-induced antibodies . . . seem to continue to be protective against the mutant strain,” he said.  

“It is a very minor diminution, but the cushion that you have of efficacy is so large that it’s not going to negatively impact.”

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.  

Image: Reuters