There is good news and bad news tied to the Omicron variant that’s currently barreling through the United States. The bad news is that many people are being infected, case counts are climbing, and many events are being canceled. Flights are also being canceled, ruining the holiday travel plans of many people. 

However, the good news is that the variant appears to lead to less severe illness than past variants, leading to much less death. Hospitals are not quite being overwhelmed, at least not yet, and while there has been a great deal of market volatility of late, the markets haven’t collapsed the way they did when the pandemic first began. 

Now, a leading journalist on the pandemic has made the case for another reason for optimism. 

David Wallace-Wells wrote about another positive thing for New York Magazine. “The size and speed of the wave,” and the possibility that it will pass more quickly than first feared, Wallace-Wells noted. 

Caveats apply and that things with this pandemic have not always been what they first appeared to be, and even less suffering and death than expected is still a lot of suffering and death. But multiple countries are reporting data that shows that Omicron waves tend to not last a long time. South Africa, for instance, already appears to be past its peak of new cases from Omicron. 

“The news about Omicron’s relative pathogenicity is now coming from many countries outside South Africa, and though it is partial and preliminary, it also appears quite unanimous: Whether from inherent reductions in severity, population-level immunity, or some other factor, the new variant is causing less severe illness wherever it is popping up,” Wallace-Wells wrote. He added that the size of the wave is important, as opposed to just the severity. 

If the United States follows the curve of South Africa and other countries since Omicron arrived, then the Omicron wave in the United States could peak as early as mid-January. 

“We can’t take any of this to the bank, but we should probably be keeping as close an eye on case growth abroad and in the U.S. as we are on evolving estimates of severity,” Wallace-Wells wrote. 

There are additional caveats given that no one knows how much immunity is conferred once patients recover from Omicron infection or how much immunity it confers against other and future variants. Those variants could determine a great deal about what shape the pandemic takes in the future. And the Delta wave was much harder on the United States than it was on Europe, a phenomenon that could repeat itself with Omicron. 

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for the National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver. 

Image: Reuters