Broadly speaking, Hezbollah has consistently praised its security coordination with the LAF as part of the larger goal of defending Lebanon. Although Olleik criticized the LAF’s participation in a maritime exercise, he claimed that the decision was made unilaterally by Aoun, not the LAF. The LAF is a widely popular institution, inclusive of members of all Lebanese sects, that has emerged as an institution of national unity after the Lebanese civil war and subsequent mass defections of officers and soldiers to confessional militias. Lebanon has elected four presidents who were LAF commanders based on the ideals of patriotism and national unity associated with their organization. However, given the recent U.S.-sponsored Abraham Accords and growing normalization of relations with Israel in the region, as well as the collapse of negotiations to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, any new power-sharing arrangement including electing a pro-U.S. army commander as president that undermines Hezbollah’s interests or demand its disarmament is unlikely. Hezbollah perceives Aoun as a potential presidential candidate close to the United States who may compromise the current security balance and lead Lebanon on uncertain terms. According to several observers, unless Hezbollah receives guarantees that Aoun will not interfere in its affairs, it will not nominate or elect him.

Rany Ballout is a New York-based political risk and due diligence analyst with extensive experience in the Middle East. He holds a master's degree in International Studies from the University of Montreal in Canada and a bachelor's degree in Linguistics from Uppsala University in Sweden.

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