On Friday, the Taliban completed the seizure of Kandahar, the second-largest city in Afghanistan and the birthplace of the Islamist movement. This follows the capture of the provincial capital of Helmand, which has essentially given the insurgent forces near-complete control of southern and western Afghanistan. It will also allow the Taliban to begin its advance on Kabul, the country’s capital.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the United States has already begun a drawdown of its large embassy in Kabul, while it is sending some 3,000 additional troops back to the Central Asian nation to help evacuate most of the staff. That will cut the diplomatic presence to an essential core. Other Western embassies are taking a similar course of action, as fears increase that the Taliban could begin to lay siege to the city within the coming days.

Just last month, there were reports that the Afghan government could collapse within six months of the U.S. withdrawal, but now it is becoming clear that a complete Taliban takeover could be possible even sooner. The U.S. military now believes that all of Afghanistan could be in the Taliban’s complete control within just two months.

Return of the Taliban

Insurgent forces now control about two-thirds of the country. Just this week the Taliban overran four provincial capitals. However, some U.S. government officials are holding out hope that the Afghan government forces will be able to maintain control of their capital city. The insurgents have no air force and are outnumbered by the U.S.-trained Afghan defense forces.

“No potential outcome has to be inevitable, including the fall of Kabul,” chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Thursday. “It doesn’t have to be that way. It really depends on what kind of political and military leadership the Afghans can muster to turn this around.”

President Joe Biden has already made it clear that he will not reverse course to send U.S. troops back to Afghanistan, even as the Taliban has made considerable strides on the battlefield across the country. The president told reporters on Wednesday that Afghanistan has “got to fight for themselves, fight for their nation.”

The Taliban had taken control of Afghanistan in 1996 and ruled the country until the U.S.-led invasion following the September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, which had been directed by Al Qaeda terrorists operating with impunity from within Afghanistan.

Back to the Taliban

The United Nations Security Council has already discussed a draft statement that would condemn Taliban attacks on cities and towns, which have resulted in high civilian casualties. The Taliban has been warned that if they take the country by force, it is unlikely it would be recognized as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

For its part, the Taliban has said it would not participate in “any conference” on Afghanistan’s future until all foreign troops leave the country. Even as foreign troops are departing, it seems that the Taliban will opt to simply take Kabul as a prize instead.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small arms, and is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Reuters.