The Future of the Middle East Looks Just Like This
The Middle East is not on the precipice of a great regional war. The future is more likely to look like Lebanon: fractured and constantly in turmoil.
The United States can achieve this objective with a two-pronged approach. It must diplomatically address divisions and disagreements with its allies and between U.S. allies. It must also minimize Iranian interference in these milieus through the maintenance of the maximum pressure policy. If the maximum pressure policy is maintained, the Iranian government will increasingly be forced to choose between its citizens and its Yemeni, Syrian, and Iraqi clients. Glimpses of this are appearing in Iran with the protests surrounding the hike in gas prices.
Referencing Lebanon dampens the hysteria surrounding the imminence of a great war in the Middle East. Robert Malley and others have overlooked the usefulness of Lebanon for diagnosing and remedying the many problems of the Middle East. Lebanon is a valuable, largely untapped resource for U.S. policymakers, because Lebanon has had an extensive history with the region’s current dynamics and afflictions.
Sadly, remedying the region through the lens of Lebanon suggests no ideal path forward. Effective policies will be arduous, slow, and sometimes painful. Also, similar to Lebanon, it does not appear that the region will shed its afflictions any time soon.
Eric Bordenkircher, Ph.D., is a research fellow at UCLA’s Center for Middle East Development. The views represented in this piece are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of UCLA or the Center for Middle East Development.
Image: Reuters.