The most recent annual report put out by the Social Security Administration, the federal agency responsible for overseeing retirees’ benefit payments, indicated that all benefits would be cut by 22 percent by the year 2034 unless Congress took action to fix the program’s funding gap.

This comes as bad, although not unsurprising, news. Estimates of the program’s funding shortfall taken before the coronavirus pandemic began suggested that it would run out of money by 2035, as obligations to retirees outstripped the amount of tax revenue the agency collected each year. This problem was heightened by the advent of the coronavirus; as millions of Americans lost their jobs, Social Security tax payments dried up, but the Social Security Administration was still obligated to pay out benefits in full to retirees. Moreover, many Americans took the opportunity to file for their benefits early, further increasing the agency’s obligations.

The Social Security trustees also projected that the U.S. mortality rate would increase through 2023, and argued that coronavirus-related measures, such as lockdowns and social distancing, would cause a shortage of births in the near future.

The trustees committed to monitoring future developments, as the pandemic is not yet over and COVID-19 could continue to affect Social Security payments—largely because they are legally required to be fully funded through taxation.

While the Social Security retirement fund is running out of money, other federal programs are in worse shape. Medicare Part A, which pays for certain hospital and nursing home costs for elderly Americans, is scheduled to be depleted in 2026, a number that has remained unchanged throughout the pandemic. Following its insolvency, the program would only be able to cover around 90 percent of its costs, making an increase from Congress necessary.

Medicare Parts B and D, which cover doctor visits and prescription drugs, are “adequately financed into the indefinite future” according to the report.

While the trustees have advocated for action on Capitol Hill to prevent the expiration of Social Security, Congress has historically been loath to do so. Addressing the Social Security deficit would require either cutting benefits, strongly opposed by senior advocacy groups, such as the American Association of Retired Persons, or else increasing taxes, sure to anger many fiscal conservatives. Previous presidents’ efforts to address the problem, including a quiet attempt by President Barack Obama in 2011, have come to nothing.

Trevor Filseth is a current and foreign affairs writer for the National Interest.

Image: Reuters.