A month ago, the film Civil War arrived at the box office, and some critics quickly compared our current deep divide to the one depicted in the film. The New York Times suggested, "We Have Met the Enemy and It Is Us. Again," while The New Yorker described the film as "A Tale of Bad News." Such reviews could be dismissed as East Coast elitist hyperbole that is largely out of touch with Middle America and what the coastal elites describe as the "flyover states."

The film has further earned comparisons to our current state of affairs, as the country is now headed towards a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump – only the second rematch in U.S. history between two men to have occupied the White House (the Oval Office didn't exist at the time).

The first was in 1892 when former President Grover Cleveland challenged President Benjamin Harrison, who was also seeking re-election.

However, it is important to note that the country is in a very different place than it was in 1892. For one thing, in the 1888 election, Cleveland actually won the popular vote but narrowly lost in the Electoral College, while he went on to win both in 1892.

Moreover, the nation, which had fought a very real civil war only three decades earlier, was divided but not in a way that is comparable to today.

Not a Civil War – But Expect Violence Regardless if Donald Trump or Joe Biden Wins 

Despite our deep divide, the United States still isn't likely headed towards an actual civil war, but things could still get ugly. President Joe Biden has done a very good job of alienating Trump supporters, while the former president's legal woes have rallied many to his side, believing he is being unjustly persecuted.

How bad could get it? A lot depends on where the country is in just a few months time.

Former President Donald Trump said in an April interview with Time magazine that he doesn't expect there to be violence – because he expects to win.

"I don't think we're going to have that. I think we're going to win," Trump told the magazine of record, but when questioned what happens if he loses (again), Trump was even more candid. "If we don't win, you know, it depends. It always depends on the fairness of an election."

However, Trump (and not to mention his critics) may also forget the fact that his win in 2016 was met by mass protests, some of which turned violent. There may be no civil war, but sadly we should expect some anger, possibly even some violence on Election Day, regardless of who wins.

The country is simply too divided to come together, and arguably both campaigns are only fueling the division. Outside factors, including the war in Gaza, the conflict in Ukraine, and the U.S. support for NATO – not to mention the disinformation campaigns currently being waged by our adversaries – are also further dividing us.

Can The Republican Party Survive a Trump Loss?

Political parties can survive losses – simply because that is part of the political system. No party – at least not in a two-party system – can stay in power forever, as much as some would like it to be true. The Republican Party lost five straight presidential elections during the Roosevelt-Truman era, and as TheHill.com reported, those 16 years in the wilderness transformed it.

The same happened in the 1980s and early 1990s when the Democrats lost three in a row during the Reagan-Bush era. When Bill Clinton arrived on the scene in 1992, he was quite different from the Democrats who came before him.

It is also important to remember that for most of the post-World War II era, the norm was eight years of one party, followed by eight years of the other – with the exception of Jimmy Carter, and then Reagan-Bush.

Clinton was followed by George W. Bush, who was followed by Barack Obama. We were certainly on track for that to continue with eight years of Trump, but arguably COVID-19 upended things considerably just four years ago. But it should also be noted that Trump never really commanded the Republican Party, not in the way that Ronald Reagan had, and even to the extent of George W. Bush. As noted by Politico.com, the elections of 2018, 2020, and 2020 were disappointments for the Republicans – which questions what hold Trump has on the party.

Trump continues to be a dominating figure thanks to his strong base. It was strong enough for him to secure the nomination in 2016, and for him to carve a narrow path to victory in 2016 – although he lost the popular vote. He was unable to turn that into a win in 2020, and while he is neck-and-neck in the current polls, victory could still remain elusive. A loss in 2024 won't be the death knell for the GOP, and possibly even not the MAGA movement, simply because Trump won't accept the outcome.

He told Time magazine, "It always depends on the fairness of an election," and in victory, he'll maintain it was fair and free (but likely still suggest the other side cheated). In defeat, he'll almost certainly do otherwise. He will push forward that it was due to election interference, and make other dubious claims, but he's hardly the first not to accept defeat. Losers on both sides of the political spectrum – Hillary Clinton, Stacey Abrams, and Kari Lake among others – have made loss denial part of the new normal. And that helps keep us divided.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

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