Summary and Key Points: On Thursday, Donald Trump and Joseph Biden will face off for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election. Both candidates have low expectations for their debate performance, which may work to their advantage.

-Trump is likely to fare better due to his non-traditional debate style, appeal as a firebrand, and higher energy levels.

-However, Biden, as the sitting President with extensive political experience, should not be written off.

2024 Debate Preview: Trump and Biden's Low Expectations Set the Stage

On Thursday, Donald Trump and Joseph Biden will face off for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election. Traditionally, the debate stage can serve as a pivot point for a presidential campaign – but little is traditional about the 2024 race. Let’s consider what to watch for, and who the favorite may be.

Setting the bar low

The oddest part, perhaps, about the 2024 general election is that both candidates have served as president. The other odd part about the 2024 election is that both candidates have extremely low expectations for debate performance. These guys aren’t Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton or Richard Nixon. Whereas in the past, candidates have usually earned their candidacy, in part, through eloquent oral advocacy, neither Biden nor Trump is especially eloquent. Trump isn’t even well versed in policy. Biden knows his policy, but no longer seems capable of expressing that knowledge. The two 2024 candidates are outliers among presidential candidates in that they are not good debaters. 

The good news for the candidate is that expectations are so low, that the candidates should be able to impress the public with a relatively modest performance. That the expectations are so low is not just the result of the candidates’ performance to date, but also due to consistent branding efforts from the other side. Team Biden has spent years portraying Trump as an idiot; Team Trump has spent years portraying Biden as demented. The branding has stuck, to an extent, which may backfire come Thursday’s debate, given that all Biden needs to do to impress is indicate that he knows where he is, and all Trump needs to do to impress is pronounce a few names accurately.   

So, who is more likely to meet their low-threshold success bar? Probably Trump. The real estate mogul turned president is never going to wow with his articulation or policy acumen, but Trump has strengths that he carries into the debate, which give him an advantage. One, Trump doesn’t meet other candidates on the same plane of battle, i.e., a traditional debate. Rather, Trump plays his own game, and he does it better than anyone. 

Two, Trump’s appeal isn’t predicated upon debating well; Trump’s appeal is predicated upon being a firebrand who tells off establishment figures on behalf of the average American. That’s easier to do than turn in a traditional, coherent debate performance, which remains the expectation for Washington insider Joe Biden. 

Three, Trump is consistently higher-energy than Biden and in a debate where neither candidate is likely to appear sharp or inspiring, Trump’s higher energy may give him an edge, especially considering that the biggest concern facing Biden is his age. If Trump can offer a vigorous contrast to his counterpart, it will exacerbate concerns over Biden’s age.

Yet despite Trump’s advantages, Biden should not be written off. He is the sitting President of the United States. He does have half a century of experience as an elected official. And there have been moments over the last four years where he has pulled it together and offered a coherent performance. Biden could still steal a win on Thursday.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

All images are Creative Commons.