Here's What to Remember: Abbott visited Taiwan in October to deliver an address at an international forum in Taipei. “Our challenge is to try and ensure that the unthinkable remains unlikely and that the possible does not become the probable,” said Abbott, referring to possible Chinese attempts to escalate the Taiwan dispute in the future.

China could “soon” invade Taiwan, said former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott during a recent Wilson Center event.

“I think we need to be prepared to think the unthinkable,” Abbott said. “I think it’s entirely possible that at some point in time, perhaps quite soon, China might up the ante. Either with a blockade of the so-called rebel province to teach the Taiwanese that they cannot go on as they are. They need to make some kind of an accommodation with Beijing or perhaps even a full-scale invasion. I think it’s that serious, and I don’t think it is safe to assume that this might not happen for years or decades.”

Beijing may become emboldened if it perceives the self-governing island to its east to be militarily and diplomatically isolated, the former prime minister indicated. “I think it’s important for democracies everywhere to do what they can to show solidarity with Taiwan at this time.  Certainly, one way of showing solidarity with Taiwan at this time would be to admit Taiwan into the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” he added.

Abbott visited Taiwan in October to deliver an address at an international forum in Taipei. “Our challenge is to try and ensure that the unthinkable remains unlikely and that the possible does not become the probable,” said Abbott, referring to possible Chinese attempts to escalate the Taiwan dispute in the future. The former prime minister referenced China’s Hong Kong crackdowns and human rights abuses against its Muslim Uyghur minority as proof of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) belligerent posture.

Scott Morrison, the current prime minister, emphasized on Tuesday that Abbott visited Taiwan solely in a private capacity. “Tony is in Taiwan as a private citizen, and I didn’t have any conversation with him before that … so what he said and what messages he passed on, he passed on in that capacity,” Morrison said.

In September, Australia nixed a high-profile contract with France for twelve diesel-electric submarines in favor of at least eight nuclear-powered submarines—built with U.S. technology—under the newly signed AUKUS trilateral defense pact. But Australia’s upcoming nuclear submarine fleet is not slated to become operational until the 2040s, subjecting the Royal Australian Navy to a potential capabilities gap in the event of an armed conflict with a major regional adversary like China.

During his Wilson Center appearance, Abbott reiterated his call for Australia to acquire some older Los Angeles-classor Trafalgar-class submarines as a stopgap solution. “The obvious possibilities are to take over some retiring LA-class submarines currently in the reserve fleet or indeed the two Trafalgar-class submarines that will be retiring from the Royal Navy in the next 12 months or so,” Abbott said.

Mark Episkopos is a national security reporter for the National Interest.

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