It seems to be a matter of time before Tokyo witnesses an aerial repeat of the dangerous encounters between Chinese and Japanese forces that took place in 2013. With tensions this high, a single pilot could spark an international crisis. If such a crisis happens, Japan wants to be able to fight and win.

Tokyo’s priority, according to its Mid-Term Defense Program covering the period up to 2018, is the “development of capacities to ensure maritime supremacy and air superiority.” But it is clear from the same document that the government is struggling to do so.

Since 2012, the Air Self-Defense Force has been equipping 49 of its 94 F-2s with Mitsubishi AAM-4B missiles and furnishing 91 of the planes with new J/APG-2 radars. The upgrades should help the single-engine fighters to better support the F-15s in air-to-air battles.

Japan has also improved its F-15s by way of two multi-stage improvement programs, starting in 2004 and affecting 68 aircraft. But the F-15 fleet’s age is showing — there have been frequent reports of parts falling off the planes, particularly in Okinawa.

With the F-2s expected to retire by 2030, the F-15s continuing to patrol Japan’s skies until the 2040s and only 42 F-35s acting as a fifth-generation stop-gap, Japan is pinning its hopes on a sixth-generation stealth/counter-stealth air-supremacy fighter appearing in the coming few years.

The problem is, there are no such aircraft available for Japan to purchase. Even after all these years, Japan wants an F-22 — a twin-engine, air-to-air interceptor that can reach its target quickly.

The foils for Japan’s ambitions are likely China’s J-20 and J-31 twin-engine stealth fighters, both expected to enter service in the coming decade. Chinese media has also suggested that these aircraft might even be deployed on aircraft carriers.

Regardless of the quality of the final airframes — and more importantly, the engines — China enjoys the benefit of numbers. At an eight-to-one fighter disadvantage, Japan relies on geography, training and technology to stay on top of its increasingly powerful neighbor.

Until now, Japan has been focused on creating a testbed for maintaining and advancing fifth-generation technologies, resulting in the X-2 advanced technology demonstrator that made its maiden flight in early 2016. This small stealthy aircraft is far from a final production craft, but the technologies it will test are the building blocks of any domestic warplane.

The new request for information matches the existing schedule of a government decision on whether to buy a new plane off the shelf, co-produce it with a foreign firm or manufacture the jet entirely in Japan. Tokyo expects to announce it decision in 2018.

Unless companies such as Boeing and Lockheed and their European competitors are hiding some hitherto-unheard-of projects, the specifications Aviation Week reported make a wholly domestic F-3 look more likely than ever. But it will be expensive — and as likely to disappoint as the F-2 that preceded it.

Potential manufacturers and suppliers have until August to answer the current request for information.

This first appeared in WarIsBoring here.