Top 5 Big Foreign Conflicts Donald Trump Will Inherit (And What He Might Do About Them)

November 18, 2016 Topic: Security Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: ChinaRussiaIranDonald TrumpMiddle EastAsiaWarPolitics

Top 5 Big Foreign Conflicts Donald Trump Will Inherit (And What He Might Do About Them)

So what will he do about them? 

 

The Houthis ousted Yemen’s government and forced its U.S.-backed president, Abed Mansour Hadi, to flee to Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis receive support from Iran, Saudi Arabia’s rival in the Middle East.

 

Obama decided to intervene in the fight because he wanted to reassure the U.S.’ commitment to Saudi Arabia, a longtime ally that was troubled by the nuclear deal with Iran. In addition, the U.S. is concerned the chaos in Yemen could benefit the country’s al-Qaeda affiliate.

About 10,000 people, nearly half civilians, have been killed in the war, most of them by the Saudi military coalition, according to the United Nations.

Because of the civilian deaths, including some killed in schools and hospitals, human rights groups and members of Congress are increasingly criticizing the U.S. for its role in the war. Some American lawmakers have called for postponing arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

On Tuesday, Reuters reported, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced the Houthis and Saudi Arabia agreed to a cessation of hostilities, beginning Nov. 17.

What Trump Could Do:

It’s difficult to predict what Trump would do in this conflict, because he hasn’t said much about it.

It’s possible, experts say, that Trump could continue the U.S. assistance to the Saudis in a bid to repair relations with them, and he has professed support for Saudi Arabia in the past.

At a rally in January, he said Iran was “going into Yemen” and was “going to have everything” in the region.

Allying more strongly with the Saudis against the Houthis would fit Trump’s interest in curtailing Iranian influence.

 

But Trump, to fulfill his pledge to remove the U.S. from the Middle East, could also choose to stop supporting the Saudis in Yemen.

5. Campaigns Against Terrorists in Africa:

What’s Happening Now:

Obama has described his efforts to destroy al-Qaeda’s core leadership as one of the successes of his national security policy. But the terrorist threat has spread to new regions in recent years, prompting a U.S. military response, and Trump will have to decide how to proceed.

Unrelated campaigns in Libya and Somalia are prime examples of the diffuse threat.

In Libya, the U.S. has conducted more than 360 airstrikes in support of pro-government forces trying to expel ISIS from the coastal Libyan city, Sirte. A small number of U.S. special operations forces are also providing on-the-ground support.

Since the 2011 American intervention in Libya that led to the death of the country’s deposed dictator leader, Muammar Gaddafi, the country has been plagued by instability.

Today, the U.S. is supporting a project to build a unity government in Libya. But the unity government has not yet won the approval of Libya’s various rival factions.

“Libya is a quintessential civil war,” Middle East expert Pollack said. “ISIS makes their home in civil wars.”

Separately, in another African nation, Somalia, the U.S. has been engaged for more than a decade in an air campaign against al-Shabab, an affiliate of al-Qaeda. The group is responsible for one of the deadliest attacks in Africa, when in 2013 it struck a mall in Nairobi, Kenya.

The terrorist group spawned in 2005, taking advantage of chaos in a country that has been split apart by civil war for 25 years.

This year, The Washington Post reports, the U.S. has conducted more than a dozen airstrikes and drone strikes against al-Shabab.

According to The New York Times, as part of a multifront war against militant Islam in Africa, American forces are also involved in helping to combat al-Qaeda in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso and Boko Haram in Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad.

What Trump Could Do:

Trump has hinted he would expand the military campaign against ISIS in Libya.

“Who has the oil in Libya? ISIS has the oil,” Trump said at a rally in May 2016. “If ISIS has the oil, why aren’t we blockading so they can’t sell it? Why aren’t we bombing the hell out of [ISIS]?”

But during the presidential race, he was critical of his opponent, Hillary Clinton, for supporting the bombing intervention that led to Gaddafi’s fall when she was Obama’s secretary of state.

Experts say the next president should try to take on a more active diplomatic role to help solve Libya’s governing challenges.

“You could imagine a somewhat different approach in Libya,” said Michael O’Hanlon, director of research for the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, in an interview with The Daily Signal. “We could try to create a peacekeeping operation of some type, and push for a confederal or power sharing arrangement working with different groups rather than one central government. This is a logical alternative to the counterterrorism approach of Obama.”

Trump has not commented substantively on the broader terrorism challenges in Africa. But as experts note, Trump is inheriting a U.S. drone program dramatically expanded under Obama.

Indeed, the Obama administration says it has killed 2,436 people in 473 counterterrorism strikes in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya between January 2009 and the end of 2015.

It’s up to Trump on what he will do with these tools.

“I expect the policy will be closer to Obama than he wants to admit,” Pollack said. “One of the fundamental challenges facing the next administration is are they going to continue to play whack-a-mole with ISIS and al-Qaeda or try to get serious by trying to shut down some of these civil wars. And then the question becomes how bad do things get, and when things get really bad, do they try to face the cost and fix the problem or run the risk and stay out? That is the reckoning we will be facing in a few years.”

This first appeared in The Daily Signal here.