The October 7 attack has exposed Israel’s vulnerability in its intelligence and military. The question is how Mossad and the IDF, which rank among the most esteemed intelligence agencies and armed forces in the world, failed to anticipate such a terrifying assault—one that will likely define the future of not only Israel but perhaps the Middle East as well. The answer to this question should determine whether it is a good idea for Israel to invade the Gaza Strip.

Israel’s biggest issue right now is the dangerous political and social division that some argue will eventually destroy the country from within. In a country where everyone counts for defense, thousands of reservists threatened to resign over Netanyahu’s insistence on the judicial overhaul. The Israeli Army Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, warned in July that “If we do not have a strong and unified army if the best do not serve, we will not be able to exist as a country in this region anymore.” The friction between Netanyahu and his cabinet members became so extreme that in March, Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, which, after strong protests, he had to withdraw. Ironically, Gallant is now overseeing Netanyahu’s anti-Hamas campaign. This extreme division considered, the notion that Netanyahu might become ever more powerful out of the Gaza debacle, which would subsequently allow him to move forward with the judicial overhaul, is undoubtedly going to determine whether the anti-Netanyahu factions within the military will be willing to perform as expected in Gaza.

Furthermore, the Hamas Blitzkrieg has left the Israeli armed forces members traumatized, such that the trauma experts have warned that the Israeli military is failing to address this issue, and due to that, many Israeli soldiers will find it hard to return to duty in the absence of active steps to provide them with emotional support. A possible Gaza incursion will undoubtedly result in casualties, increasing IDF members’ reluctance to fight. 

Netanyahu is banking on the presumption that the US will become militarily involved in the conflict. However, it will be difficult for the Biden administration to sell to Americans another forever war in the Middle East on the eve of the 2024 presidential elections. Accordingly, Israel should not expect American boots on the ground. Iranian-backed militias have already stepped up harassment of the U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq, the latest of which resulted in the injury of twenty-four American servicemen. The arrival of coffins shrouded by American flags will hurt Biden, which will be a strong disincentive to fully support Israel militarily.

All these considered, it is exceedingly looking like an Israeli ground incursion in Gaza will fail to yield results favorable for Jerusalem.

Ali Demirdas is a former Fulbright scholar and professor of international affairs at the College of Charleston (2011–2018). You can follow him on Twitter @AliDemirdasPhD.

Image: IDF/Creative Commons.