Finally, there is the challenger charisma question. Most likely this one goes to Obama.

Taken in total, this exercise suggests that the president is in significantly better shape for reelection than many of his opponents and detractors have professed to believe. Obama may go down next November, and the keys provide a pretty good picture of just how that could happen. But they also tell us that such an outcome certainly is no foregone conclusion at this point.

Robert W. Merry is editor of The National Interest and the author of books on American history and foreign policy.