In a parliamentary election, however, Yanukovich's Regions will in all likelihood win before Tymoshenko, though probably with less of a margin than last time. Our Ukraine is likely to lose about a third of its support, and the communists might gain slightly because of their campaign against NATO and the likely collapse of the socialists. The only real winner would be Tymoshenko, but even so, Yanukovich would almost inevitably be able to form the next government, if he is not seriously hurt by some mistake he makes in this crisis. The Regions will probably be forced to hang together because of the sudden development of events, while a slower development could have caused splits.

After two calm days, the risk of violence appears to have abated. The pressure is increasingly on the government and Yanukovich thanks to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's apt initial actions. Given that nobody really obeys laws in Ukraine and the general view that he who pays the judges the most wins a court case, the Constitutional Court might either be indecisive or yield to decency, as was the case in December 2004. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have taken the strife to the public, which might be the decisive forum. And nobody is better than Tymoshenko there.

Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics. He is also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University.