Fine-tuning the regional balance of power first

The statesmanship of Metternich and Castlereagh lied in the fact that they managed to create a balance of power amongst the European powers, which, though neither fair nor just, was accepted by European leaders as legitimate. Iran’s violent projection of power across the region and Saudi Arabia’s meddling in the affairs of regional states (with the tacit approval of the U.S.) reflect respective ambitions for regional dominance rather than stability. It’s about old-fashioned power first, the much-cited Shia-Sunni fault line second. If there ever were to emerge a Middle Eastern concert among the Arabs States, Iran and Turkey to manage regional relations jointly, to engage in meaningful preventative diplomacy and if violent conflicts occur, to resolve it themselves, it needs to be accepted as legitimate in the first place. It won’t happen as long Iran is being kept out. After all, even France was allowed to join the Concert of Europe in 1818. There could have not been a peace without its membership. Today, the Arab League’s secretary general, Amr Moussa, is no Metternich, neither are any of the Gulf monarchs, nor Iran’s president, Hassan Rowhani, nor its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. However, rather than trying to save face internationally through a military strike, the U.S. should allow these regional leaders to be stakeholders for regional peace and support a political solution which caters to the warring parties inside and outside of Syria and addresses immediate human-security needs.

Another international conference in Geneva at the end of September won’t be a Congress of Vienna. It will also not bring about the independence of Palestine, end confessional and sectarian violence in Lebanon, or meet the socioeconomic needs of Arabs in North Africa. But it could be a first step towards a regional order accepted as legitimate by all states. Iran wants acceptance as a regional power. So do Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Levant craves peace, Palestine statehood, and North Africa’s youth are yearning for dignity and democracy. A regional solution to end the bloodletting in Syria could very well assist in fine-tuning the regional balance of power. A future stable Middle Eastern concert, able to sustain peace, may then eventually become a genuine security community, in which the use of force will become unthinkable and political systems are based on justice and integrity. After all, it worked for history’s most violent region: Europe.

Bernd Kaussler is Associate Professor Political Science at James Madison University where he teaches U.S. foreign policy, international security and US-Middle East relations. He is the author of: Iran’s Nuclear Diplomacy: Power Politics and Conflict Resolution.

Image: Background Wikimedia Commons/Pretzelpaws. CC  BY-SA 3.0.