In contrast to Medvedev’s posturing as a liberal reformer, Mishustin’s reforming is not claptrap. The main goal was to unify production standards and end “digital feudalism” by creating compatibility among Russia’s 800 information systems. The new mantra was “one portal” for all issues (this managerial unification drive has also been promoted by Anna Putina). Another key reform moved away from Kudrin’s flat tax. Mishustin, in 2021, imposed progressive taxes on the “rich,” those earning more than 5 million rubles a year (at the time, about $800,000). At the time, these reforms received little notice other than from specialized journals. In retrospect, it is clear that Mishustin created the administrative prerequisites for an isolated wartime economy. As opposed to the West, Russia would be ready for the long game. 

Mishustin gained new powerful patrons at the top levels. Mishustin’s Jewish ancestry, sure enough, has been commented on in the outskirts of the “patriotic” anti-semitic press.Nonetheless, Mishustin receives glowing praise from right-wing outlets, even from Alexander Prokhanov’s anti-semitic Zavtra. One article compared Mishutin’s approach to Stalin, an ultimate tribute for Russian “patriots.” On the liberal side, Mishustin has faced relatively minor criticisms. For over a decade, undercurrent rumors have circulated that Mishutin was involved in corrupt deals. However, none of this has dented Mishustin’s rise, and in the Russian context, it may even embellish his Godfather-like protected status.

Starting in 2020, Russian national TV news has regularly featured Mishustin meeting cabinet ministers and other functionaries one-on-one. He is comfortable wielding technical terms and power. For example, in his meeting with Sergei Chemizov, a man fifteen years Mishustin’s senior and a longtime powerful KGB crony of Putin, we see a confident Mishustin in command of the situation. When Mishustin demands a performance report concerning the lagging defense production, Chemizov seems diffident and nervous.

During his frequent one-on-one meetings with Putin, who often enjoys watching underlings squirm, Mishustin exudes authority and competence, delving into technical issues. From body language, it’s clear their relationship is strictly professional: there is no sign of personal warmth. By contrast, during his first term, Putin preferred to work with people he knew intimately. The needs of the war have somewhat diminished cronyism. 

The only time we see the nerdy Mishustin cut loose in public is in contexts such as meeting with university students to pose Sheldon Cooper-like math puzzles. It’s clear he has a genuine love of science, math, and technology. Behind the scenes, he can cut loose in other ways: in 2011, Mishustin co-authored a tango, “A True Woman,” for the Russian pop star Grigory Leps.

A Technocrat at War 

Mishustin was kept in the dark about the plan for a full invasion of Ukraine, or at least, this was what he let on. During Putin’s surreal cabinet discussion on the eve of the invasion on February 21, 2022, Mishustin called for “bringing our position to the West, if you will, catalyzing it.” Only when diplomacy had been exhausted, according to Mishustin, should Russia recognize the independence of the so-called Donetsk Republic. [When his patron, Sergei Naryshkin, expressed similar sentiments at this meeting, he was ferociously lampooned by Putin.] For months after the invasion, Mishustin refused to mention the “special operation” at all, only hinting at some vague “external challenges” or the “current political situation.” Some have called him the informal leader of the moderate peacenik faction. Since the war, Mishustin and Nabiullina have worn funeral-like dark suits. Several times, the news camera has caught Mishustin rolling his eyes during Putin’s anti-Western tirades. In 2022, Mishustin rarely found himself caught up in the web of Kremlin propaganda. 

However, as Russia’s military position improved in mid-2023, Mishustin assumed a more ‘patriotic’ stance. In fact, Mishustin, along with much of the Russian elite, seems genuinely disillusioned with the West. The technocratic-minded Mishustin is upset that the West is violating its own principles on property rights, free trade, and sound monetary policy. Importantly, Mishustin heads the Coordination Council for the needs of the Military Forces. Launched on October 24, 2022, this organ “deals with the entire range of issues related to meeting the needs of the Armed Forces during the special military operation. Among these are: setting standards for the supply of weapons and equipment, budget financing, pricing, selection of suppliers and contractors, and creation of specialized infrastructure.” 

Given Russia’s massive losses, Mishustin’s council has faced daunting issues. Publicly, this council, which includes all the major siloviki, has met sixteen times. In a meeting on February 19, 2024, we see Mishustin exuding confidence. He calls for producing better weapons and establishing a “peaceful life in the new territories [of Ukraine].” Mishustin stresses the critical role of Anna Putina Tsivilyova’s organization, the Defenders of the Fatherland, and promises lavish funding. 

In public appearances, Mishustin exudes patriotic confidence. For example, at youth conferences in December 2023, an upbeat Mishustin argued that Russia should focus on AI and the digital economy, claiming, “Even our opponents recognize our economic success.” Mishutin has argued that Russia does not need great geniuses as before in its history, but rather good scientific teams. Likewise, at the All-Russian National Exhibition (VDNKHA) in January, Mishustin lectured uniformed students and elaborated on his outlook. He again boasted of his administration’s adoption of virtual reality and AI and urged students to raise their knowledge of finance. As a sign of his growing importance, Mishustin led the official Russian delegation to China twice in 2023. Both times, Chinese leader Xi Jinping granted him a warm reception. Notably, Putin has not met with Xi personally since their early February 2022 infamous “no limits” summit.

A Man to Watch

Is there a chance for a relatively liberal figure to become the next Russian president? While we would like to conclude “never say never,” the practical chance is dim. After Putin’s persecution, is there even a liberal constituency left in Russia? 

What are the chances of a modernizing reformer becoming the next leader of Russia? At least here, we have three examples of Russian leaders who fit this mold: Peter the Great, Gorbachev, and Yeltsin. Putin started in 2000 viewing himself as a modernizing reformer, but for a variety of reasons, he evolved into a reactionary autocrat.

After surveying the field, the only viable candidate we can identify is the current Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin. Ultimately, it’s not clear Mishustin would even be a moderating force. We know as much today about what Mishustin really thinks as we did about Vladimir Putin in 1999. They each keep their cards close to their chest, which is usually wise in a political snakepit. Those who know, or claim to know, Mishustin often remark that he is not politically ambitious. But frankly, it is difficult to believe anybody in any system who reaches the position of prime minister does not have a deep wellspring of ambition within them. In fact, this seems more the case for Mishustin than Putin, as there is a fairly clear history of networking and schmoozing mentors that have helped his rise. Perhaps when Putin was in the KGB and Mishustin at the International Computer Club before they became state officials, they were not politically ambitious, but not after. 

It’s doubtful that it’s Mishustin’s time “to make a move.” He has served Putin effectively and loyally as Prime Minister for four years. Putin has shown that he values Mishustin’s work, as he has already strongly hinted that Mishustin will stay on as Prime Minister. What happens to the rest of the government as Putin enters his fifth term remains to be seen. What is clear is that no longer can anyone diminish Mishustin by describing him as merely a transitional figure.

Probably the most powerful Russian prime minister since Victor Chernomyrdin under Yeltsin in the 1990s, Mishustin is clearly a man to watch, and Western governments and analysts should invest more resources in getting to know him better. However, it is critical to understand that the West cannot help him politically, even if it wants to. By this time, we should know that even the perception of such support is the kiss of death for any Russian politician, reformist or otherwise.

Chris Monday is an Associate Professor of Economics at Dongseo University in Busan, South Korea.

Andy Kuchins is a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest and Adjunct Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC.

Image: Shutterstock.com.