Most of a president’s actions and much of a presidential candidate’s moves are carefully choreographed. This is why gaffes, which usually result from unscripted moments or unexpected improvisations, loom so large on the campaign trail. Last night’s presidential debate was just such an episode.

There wasn’t that much substantive debate. Both candidates are big spenders, though President Joe Biden is significantly worse. He is a politician who has gone fiscally wild, putting the United States on course for a $2 trillion annual deficit—without a financial crisis, killer pandemic, or hot war. Absent a serious change in policy, the federal debt could amount to twice America’s GDP by midcentury.

Both candidates are committed to running the world irrespective of the costs and risks and relying on Washington’s expensive and antiquated alliances. However, former president Donald Trump at least occasionally criticizes America’s cheap-riding friends. The international situation is worse today than it was when Biden took office, but Trump’s claim that war would be a thing of the past if he were still president is more fantasy than reality. Indeed, Trump was even more dangerously solicitous toward Israel and Saudi Arabia than Biden.

Instead of substance, all Washington is talking about is the Confused Old Guy. Biden’s performance was a disaster. That doesn’t mean the election is necessarily lost—four months gives the former Crazy Old Guy plenty of time to regain his title by reminding people of moderate political disposition why they don’t want four more Trump years. However, it is hard to imagine Biden winning without Trump doing the political equivalent of ritual seppuku.

There are three main takeaways from the debate. The first, which has been largely lost in the chatter over Biden acting old, looking befuddled, and sputtering a word salad, is that Trump was surprisingly, even shockingly, restrained. Surely, that will not last until November 5. However, Trump avoided a repeat of his disastrous performance four years ago, in which he ignored the agreed-upon rules and verbally assaulted Biden. Trump apparently can act in his own best interest and listen to advice, at least when it comes to winning the election. This means he might run a more focused and intelligent campaign through November despite widespread contrary expectations.

The second is the obvious, which is that Biden is not fit to be president. That has been evident for some time, as many of us with elder relatives could tell. Now, his incapacity will go from political allegation to campaign meme. Every future mumble or stumble will be interpreted in light of his doddering performance last night. If he didn’t look too debilitated to be president before, he will now.

Of course, one awful debate doesn’t mean that Biden is never capable of making serious decisions. However, it does mean that he is not physically up to the world’s most important and demanding job. And that he at least sometimes—and maybe often—is not mentally up to it. Quibbling over how much of his babbling was Old Confused Joe and how much was New Aging Incoherent Joe matters not; everyone knows that his condition will only get worse, and it beggars belief that he will be a functioning president four years from now.

All this was true yesterday before the debate. However, Biden has now dramatically displayed his physical and mental impairments to the nation. The desperate “best case” articulated by Vice President Kamala Harris that Biden got better later in the debate is irrelevant. The presidency is not a part-time position in which one hopes the holder will happen to be alert and minimally functioning when most needed.

What American believes that this man can find solutions to uncontrolled spending, rising debt, and raging inflation, as well as the crises undermining our education, immigration, and healthcare systems? Can he confront wars in Europe and the Middle East and a potentially even more devastating conflict in Asia? Is he prepared for a crisis months, let alone years from now?

Third, and perhaps worst of all for Biden, it is now his supporters who are publicly questioning his fitness to be president now, well before January, when he would start his new term. Until last night, Republican claims about his infirmities could be dismissed as partisan boilerplate backed by exaggerated descriptions and altered videos. However, yesterday, tens of millions of Americans saw the two candidates unfiltered, in a format that Biden agreed to.

Thus, panicking Democrats will do more to drive the story than the exultant Republicans. Bidencrats will have to work to reassure his supporters that his candidacy remains viable. Democrats who view his prospects as hopeless are not only less likely to vote for him but also less likely to donate money and time to Biden’s reelection and perhaps to other Democrats. If you have to beg your own party members to support the party nominee, imagine trying to persuade everyone else to do so.

Moreover, the replacement discussion will push out substantive discussion of issues. Is there any chance Biden will drop out? Is there any way to force him out? How would the process work? Who would replace him in either case? A conversation focused on these and similar concerns both reinforces the incapacity meme and drives out his campaign themes. Who wants to listen to the president’s job training proposal if his party is debating how to dump him?

All of this obviously is to Trump’s great advantage. However, eighteen weeks plus change is still a long time in politics. Trump might make his own dramatic miscue. Or Biden might collapse—literally as well as figuratively—forcing a change in the Democratic nominee. In the latter case, the Democrats, if not Biden, could still win.

However, Democratic panic is justified. More likely than not, Biden will offer a few repeat performances. And the campaign will quickly pick up speed, leaving him with little time to repair his image. In which case the election is likely to be decided with tragically little attention paid to the many serious challenges facing America in the coming years. The longer they are ignored, the greater and more certain the disaster facing Americans in the future.

About the Author: Doug Bandow 

Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.  He is a former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan and the author of several books, including Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire.

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