Will Trump Continue or Reverse U.S. Authorization for Ukraine to Fire ATACMS into Russia?: After many months of Ukrainian leader Zelensky asking, President Biden finally allowed Kyiv to fire U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles into Russian territory. 

With a range of only 190 miles, Ukraine clearly can’t use them to attack as deep into Russia as it has done with less powerful armed drones. According to The Economist, the Biden administration has only allowed Ukraine to fire ATACMS in the vicinity of Ukrainian-occupied Russian territory in Kursk in response to the deployment of thousands of North Korean troops there. 

In other words, Ukraine can’t use them to attack military targets on Russian territory adjacent to Ukrainian territory that Russian forces are occupying. This, of course, might change. But so far, as several commentators have observed, the Biden administration’s authorization of Ukraine targeting Russian territory with U.S.-supplied ATACMS is an incremental step that might help slow Russia’s advance, but certainly not reverse or even stop it. 

The real question is: Will the incoming Trump administration continue allowing Ukraine to attack Russian territory with these weapons, or will it reverse this decision? 

Russian commentators have expressed the hope, even the expectation, that Trump will reverse this policy after he takes office. Some of Trump’s closest supporters, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene and Trump’s son, Donald Jr., have condemned Biden’s move and accused him of trying to “start World War III” before Trump’s inauguration. 

As of this writing, however, neither Trump himself nor those whom he has chosen for top foreign and defense policy roles have condemned Biden’s move. And as Trump communications director Stephen Cheung told Newsweek, “[O]fficial statements on this matter will come directly from President Trump or his authorized spokespeople.” 

It is possible that Biden discussed this move with Trump during their two-hour post-election meeting at the White House. But while it is not clear what Biden and Trump discussed, there have also been reports about a telephone conversation between Putin and Trump after the latter’s election. The Washington Post reported that during the call, Trump, “advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe.” 

The Kremlin has denied that this conversation took place, but whether it did or not, Biden’s permitting Ukraine to target Russian territory with ATACMS may increase Trump’s leverage over Putin regarding the terms on which the Russia-Ukraine war ends. While Trump seems willing to concede, even if not formally recognized, Russia retaining control over the territory in eastern Ukraine and Crimea that its forces now occupy, it is not clear whether he is willing to accede to Putin’s long-stated calls for Ukraine never to join NATO or for the installation of a government “friendly” to Russia in Kyiv. 

And according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Putin has not given up these more ambitious goals. 

What will Trump do once he is sworn into office? Trump himself might not yet be certain. Some might see Biden’s permitting Ukraine to target Russian territory with ATACMS as an attempt to limit Trump’s options regarding Ukraine. But Biden’s move might also be seen as a way of strengthening Trump’s hand vis-a-vis Putin. Trump can argue that it wasn’t him that let Zelensky hit Russia with ATACMS, but if Putin wants Trump to reverse Biden’s decision...then Putin needs to make some concessions of his own. 

About the Author: Dr. Mark N. Katz

Mark N. Katz is a professor emeritus of government and politics at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government, a global fellow at the Wilson Center, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. 

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