The Russia-Ukraine war has become a battleground not just for territorial control but for humanity’s future, drawing actors from around the world into a high-stakes struggle to reshape the global balance of power. The new “Axis of Evil” continues to escalate as North Korean soldiers join the fray, exposing the folly of the Biden administration’s policy of “escalation management.” 

Meanwhile, the Western world dithers. Ukraine, outgunned and outmanned, fights to hold the line against waves of Russian and North Korean troops. As democratic policymakers continue to lack urgency in helping Ukraine, the pressing question remains: Will the forces of democracy muster the will to prevail, or will authoritarian powers succeed in carving the world into spheres of influence? 

North Korean soldiers are now fighting for Russia on European soil. Russia is desperately seeking reinforcements for its offensive to reclaim Ukrainian-controlled parts of Kursk Oblast. At the same time, North Korea capitalizes on the moment to secure support from Russia for its broader ambitions to destabilize East Asia. 

Together, the Russians and North Koreans have amassed 50,000 troops for their counteroffensive against the Ukrainian army in Kursk. Russia desperately needs more manpower. As of October 2024, U.S. defense officials estimated that Russian forces had suffered over 600,000 casualties, including both killed and wounded. 

Throughout October, Russia averaged 1,500 casualties per day, an unsustainable rate. Putin seeks to avoid a large-scale mobilization effort to prevent unrest within Russian society and maintain public support for the war. 

However, Russia has money, and lots of it, from its oil and gas revenues, which the West has failed to target adequately. This financial cushion allows Russia to sustain its war effort despite its manpower shortages. Conversely, North Korea has an abundance of manpower but is desperately in need of foreign currency. Seizing on Russia’s desperation, North Korea is likely to push for the transfer of sensitive technology to enhance its nuclear and missile programs, increasing its threat against the United States and its allies. 

Furthermore, like China, North Korea sees its support for Russia as a way to deplete Western resources. A weakened and overextended West aligns perfectly with North Korea’s ambitions on the Korean Peninsula. Should the West abandon Ukraine, it would significantly weaken its position and embolden its enemies. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has continued to weaken the Western position as he recently broke Russia’s diplomatic isolation with a phone call. His talk with Vladimir Putin, attempting to push for negotiations, handed Putin a symbolic victory. The West’s muted response to North Korean forces joining the attack in Kursk reflects a defeatist attitude toward Ukraine. Western leaders likely understand that Russia will not agree to a ceasefire while Ukraine retains control of Kursk. From their perspective, allowing Russia to retake Kursk might pave the way for a quicker exit from supporting Ukraine altogether. 

While the Biden administration has finally lifted restrictions on Ukrainian forces using long-range missiles within Russia, the decision comes years later than it should have and is limited to the Kursk region. Biden likely calculated that allowing Ukraine to strike North Korean and Russian forces in Kursk would not be viewed as overly provocative by Moscow, especially with a new U.S. presidential administration poised to take office, one that might scale back support for Ukraine. 

The best deterrent would have been to provide Ukraine with all the weapons it needed at the outset of the war without imposing restrictions on their use. This approach would have ensured that North Korean soldiers never had the opportunity to join the conflict years later. The next best option would have been to immediately lift all restrictions and supply Ukraine with enhanced long-range capabilities as soon as reports surfaced of North Korean soldiers supporting Russia. This would have been the best shot to deter North Korea from getting more involved in the war. 

The defeatist approach embraced by leaders like Scholz will only pave the way for much greater conflicts in the future, ultimately strengthening the Axis of Evil. If the West continues to stand by while Russian and North Korean forces wage war against Ukraine without significantly increasing support for Kyiv, the result will be greater chaos and the accelerated erosion of the international order that has maintained global peace since World War II—not just in Europe and East Asia, but across the globe. Ukraine is now safeguarding the Western world with its own blood. Increasingly, it is standing alone. 

About the Author:

David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. Follow him on X: @DVKirichenko. 

Image: Shutterstock.