Defining the Trump-Vance Doctrine
A second-term Trump foreign policy should mean three things: focusing on China, rebuilding at home, and ensuring allies pull their weight.
The Republican presidential ticket of former President Donald Trump and U.S. Senator JD Vance (R-OH) represents a bold and much-needed departure from the failed foreign policy consensus that has dominated Washington for decades. Meanwhile, the administration of the now likely Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, will largely double down on many of these failures.
This “DC Blob,” as once described by President Obama speechwriter Ben Rhodes, has made a series of disastrous errors that have weakened America’s global position and neglected the interests of middle-class Americans, especially in the Heartland. By adopting a realist foreign policy approach reminiscent of President Nixon and a domestic policy of renewal, a Trump-Vance administration is poised to correct these mistakes and put American interests first.
It is next to impossible to overstate the myriad of failures that can be laid at the doorstep of the Washington establishment as it has spent the still-young early twenty-first century burning through the capital earned by America’s victory in the Cold War. They are numerous and far-reaching. The worst is how both government and business elites helped facilitate China’s rise, which has now left the United States confronting the greatest geopolitical and economic challenges in its history. The Blob naively believed that economic engagement with China would lead to liberalization and democratization. Instead, it empowered a strategic competitor on an unprecedented scale that now threatens American interests globally.
This is by no means the only failure, however. The list of Blob failures also includes:
Neglecting border security: The failure to secure America’s borders has undermined national sovereignty, strained social services, and allowed for a massive influx of deadly drugs, like fentanyl from China, to enter the country and kill hundreds of thousands of Americans.
Ignoring the American Heartland: While pursuing free-trade policies, Washington elites overlooked the economic struggles of middle-class Americans, particularly in the industrial Midwest.
Pushing Russia into China’s embrace: By expanding NATO to Russia’s borders and dismissing Russian security concerns, the establishment pressed on the most neuralgic points for Russia while inflaming its inherent paranoia and imperialist urges. Even more catastrophic for U.S. interests is that it drove Moscow and Beijing into a dangerous axis that threatens to become dominant in Eurasia, thus threatening the overall U.S. geopolitical position.
Engaging in Middle Eastern misadventures: For over twenty years, ill-conceived interventions and regime change efforts destabilized the region, creating power vacuums that have bred terrorism and refugee crises.
The Trump-Vance ticket offers a clear alternative and appropriate repudiation of this failed consensus, exemplified by the lumbering Biden Administration, which, while making some gestures toward focusing on China and improving domestic industrial policy, falls short of the wholesale change needed.
This is particularly necessary given China’s rapid economic growth and technological progress, which have transformed the geopolitical landscape in Asia. The country has substantially invested in essential technologies like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology. This technological push, combined with China’s enormous economy and vast population, has made it conceivable that China could become the central global economic actor and put itself in a position to undermine not only American influence but also its domestic economy. If this were to happen, a foreign policy that puts American interests first would be unobtainable under a Sinocentric world order. Thus, an effective balance of power with China must be found to keep America’s Heartland from further decline.
Accomplishing this requires a sophisticated, multifaceted geopolitical grand strategy combined with domestic reforms to ensure America remains innovative while empowering those so long disenfranchised by the era of hyper-globalization.
First, the United States should demand that its European NATO partners increase their defense spending. America can no longer play the role of GloboCop and must prioritize increasingly national debt-limited resources in the decisive theater of Asia.
Second, relations with Russia must be recalibrated. Pursuing regime change in Moscow is a dangerous gamble, as is continuing to allow Ukraine to use U.S. equipment to strike deep into Russia. The risks of catastrophic inadvertent nuclear escalation are real. Further, continuing this policy will continue the consolidation of the Sino-Russian axis. Instead, the United States should lean on Europe to balance Russia in its backyard while seeking opportunities to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. This won’t be easy, and it will take time. However, if the western flank of Russia can be settled into a stable line, China’s long-term threat to Russia in Central Asia can begin to be appreciated by the Putin regime and, more importantly, its eventual successor.
Third, while the United States should make sure Israel is taken care of during its existential confrontation with Hamas while also being able to balance Iranian ambitions, the United States should continue to limit its direct involvement in the region, adopting a policy that does not embrace any one regional power.
Fourth, the United States should unambiguously embrace India and not allow India’s relations with Russia to become a stumbling block. The U.S.-India relationship should be seen through a broader geopolitical lens rather than focusing primarily on moral or trade issues. India represents an essential and powerful counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific.
Fifth, the United States should continue strengthening its relations with Japan and fully resource an actual pivot to Asia while shifting defense investment from Europe.
Sixth, the United States should embrace a “strategy of denial,” as outlined by former Trump administration defense official Elbridge Colby, to ensure China does not invade Taiwan. If it does, China could gain control over the production of high-end semiconductors and the ability to challenge U.S. naval power and the open system of fair trade.
A vital component of the Trump-Vance approach would be a domestic agenda that implements a strategic industrial policy to revitalize American manufacturing and protect critical industries. While the Biden administration has begun some worthwhile movement in this direction, including supporting the CHIPS Act, their focus on climate change and diversity, equity, and inclusion requirements for subsidies have led to energy cost increases and difficulty in getting dollars out the door as effectively for industry. A Trump-Vance team would build off of these underperforming efforts by:
1. Embracing an all-of-the-above energy approach that ensures affordable electricity for industry, tech users, and everyday consumers. This means exploiting the inherent advantages geography has given the United States through copious natural resources.
2. Reshoring critical supply chains and reducing dependence on China for essential goods and technologies. This includes improved mining of these materials in America alongside efforts at dramatically increasing domestic refining capacity.
3. Increasing government funding for cutting-edge research and development to maintain America’s technological edge.
4. Supporting critical industries and sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
5. Investing in homegrown workforce development to ensure all Americans can effectively compete in high-tech industries.
6. Deregulating as much of the American industry as possible to ensure that investments actually meet their objectives of modernizing transportation networks, broadband, and energy systems to support economic growth.
Other essential policies include a robust focus on fair trade policies that protect American workers and industries from unfair competition, especially from China. Other policies would put the Heartland front and center and support small Main Street businesses over Wall Street by reducing regulatory burdens and providing targeted assistance to entrepreneurs.
The Trump-Vance Administration should address the opioid crisis by investing in treatment and prevention programs, securing the border, and getting tough on China for its “reverse-opium war” on America by flooding streets with fentanyl.
A Trump-Vance administration will prioritize border security by completing the wall, enhancing technological surveillance capabilities, cracking down on visa overstays and illegal employment, and finally deporting those who have entered America illegally, not just giving lip service to doing so.
Unlike the stale shibboleths of the current elite, this comprehensive foreign and domestic strategy recognizes the realities of a changing global order. It prioritizes American interests at home and abroad. It effectively competes with the only great power with the capacity to undermine the living standards of everyday Americans—China—by laser-focusing on this competition while making sure our allies pull their weight. It also makes suitable investments at home and finally secures our border while defending American sovereignty.
By rejecting the failed policies of the Washington Establishment and adopting this approach, the Trump-Vance ticket offers a path to renewed American strength, unity, and prosperity rather than division and decline.
Greg R. Lawson is a Contributing Analyst with Wikistrat. Follow him on LinkedIn and X @ConservaWonk.
Image: Jonah Elkowitz / Shutterstock.com.