The Eclipse of the Russian Arms Market
Once a leader in global weapons exports, Russia’s arms shipments to the outside world have considerably slimmed due to Moscow’s overwhelming need to continue supplying the war in Ukraine.
However, Russia will face increasing competition from China in the value arms segment. China’s potential dominance of the lower end of the value market segment may accompany increases in geopolitical influence, representing a significant threat to U.S. and European foreign policies. Initial evidence of this is occurring in sub-Saharan Africa, where China is exporting value arms and securing access to minerals critical for green energy (e.g., China’s 2024 copper deal in the Democratic Republic of Congo and 2024 lithium deal with Mali).
Despite the increasing competition, Russia may remain a dominant global arms supplier. It may hold a top five position in the high-end market selling aircraft and air defense systems (S-300 & S-400) while remaining active in the value arms market by selling older capabilities with upgrades like the BTR-82 and the BMP-3 with remote-controlled combat modules and parts/service contracts to maintain prior exports. Because military hardware, particularly aircraft, stays in countries’ arsenals for decades, Russia not only has a long runway based on prior sales, but its runway may enable it to recover and expand its share of the global arms market in the future.
Dr. Benjamin Tkach is an Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, where he teaches international relations. He has collaborated with the National Defense University, Joint Special Operations University, and the U.S. Department of Energy. His primary research agenda investigates government decentralization, security privatization, and non-state actors’ involvement in conflict processes. His research has been supported by Mississippi State University’s ORED/OIDI, the U.S. Joint Special Operations University, and the United States Agency for International Development.
Dr. Vasabjit Banerjee is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, where he teaches comparative politics and international relations. His research has appeared in the International Political Science Review, Journal of Asian and African Studies, Journal of Elections, Public Opinions and Parties, Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Armed Forces and Society, Global Society, Asian Survey, and Representation.
Image Credit: Creative Commons.
