The bottom line is that the lab leak theory has always been a plausible explanation for the coronavirus outbreak. It was never wholly “dismissed” or “ruled out” for political reasons. But most scientists apparently still judge it to be less likely than a natural origin of the pandemic. Politically motivated and excessive attention to circumstantial evidence of the lab leak theory (and to those scientists who do support it), and criticism of its skeptics as themselves politically motivated, simply do not increase the likelihood that it is the final explanation for the coronavirus. Beijing’s obstruction of a more comprehensive investigation does not have that impact either—even though it inevitably draws greater attention to the lab leak theory, and will delay if not thwart any possibility of a “definitive conclusion.” In the meantime, assessments of the origin of the coronavirus must continue to be driven by science and empirical logic, not by U.S. politics or a determination to incriminate Beijing. 

Paul Heer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for the National Interest and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He served as National Intelligence Officer for East Asia from 2007 to 2015. He is the author of Mr. X and the Pacific: George F. Kennan and American Policy in East Asia.

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