Broadly, Iran’s axis of resistance was also engaged in information warfare aimed at deterring Israel from launching a military offensive into Lebanon. As reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an anonymous commander from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq confirmed to Western media that military advisers had been sent to Lebanon to help Hezbollah. Iranian-backed officials also indicated that thousands of fighters from across the Middle East are ready to join the conflict. Former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei warned on July 28 that a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be more dangerous for Israel than its conflict with Hamas. Commentary by Lebanese analysts cites (unspecified) reports that thousands of militia members from the Houthis, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and the Iran-backed Afghani and Pakistani Shia militant groups, the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun Brigades, have already joined or are ready to join Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in an eventual war with Israel. Not surprisingly, Iranian media has readily picked up the saga of the Hudhud drone and amplified its messaging to serve its psychological warfare machine. 

On a political level, the above-described information war has also been occurring against the backdrop of continuous Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks in Qatar, which appear now to be at risk. Reports indicate that Hezbollah and Hamas continue to discuss and coordinate around Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and battlefield developments in Gaza. In almost all his speeches that coincided with ongoing Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks, Nasrallah explicitly made references to the Gaza negotiations while reiterating conditioning the end of Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel on a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

In light of Israel’s recent attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas, the argument that Hezbollah’s escalatory attacks and the accompanying heightened rhetoric serve deterrence purposes against Israel now appears to be in doubt. As mentioned above, Nasrallah said in his speech yesterday that Hezbollah will deliver a powerful strike against Israel in the next few days, aside from the routine cross-border attacks that will resume the following day after his speech. To maintain credibility, Hezbollah’s remaining and most valid option is to launch an attack against Israeli military and civilian targets (or similar targets) that its series of drone footage has claimed to show. Such an attack will most likely throw the region into a full-blown war. 

Rany Ballout is a New York-based political risk and due diligence analyst with extensive experience in the Middle East. He holds a master’s degree in International Studies from the University of Montreal in Canada and a bachelor’s degree in Linguistics from Uppsala University in Sweden.

Image: Mohammad Kassir / Shutterstock.com.