Losers and Winners

The losers of the Gaza War seem clear at the moment. The hostages and their families have suffered, as have countless Palestinian civilians. The Biden administration, caught between a rock and a hard place in attempting to navigate the conflict, will suffer in terms of voter turnout in November. Netanyahu and Sinwar may both live to fight another day, but the former’s political days are numbered, and the latter is now targeted as Israel’s public enemy number one. Almost everyone in a position of power on both sides will have their reputation tarnished by association with a devastating and ultimately inconclusive campaign.

It is much harder to see who will come out ahead from the conflict. There is already a trend toward recognition of some version of Palestinian statehood, even if that recognition is largely a diplomatic move to extend limited political support by countries that have little to lose from the gesture. It could take another decade for the Palestinian Authority to lobby Western capitals for more concrete forms of territorial and legal sovereignty. 

By then, the circumstances on the ground will undoubtedly have created new political realities. Any successor to Mahmoud Abbas will have to promote the Palestinian Authority as a legitimate and capable institution of statecraft without alienating potential negotiating partners on the Israeli side. However, on the Israeli side, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman are both waiting in the wings to form a coalition that can unseat Netanyahu, and neither one is likely to engage in peace negotiations.

For the United States, there is no role moving forward except at two or three steps removed. It will be up to the parties in the region to reconstruct what politics looks like after Gaza. The Qataris and Egyptians will shape that dynamic, and the Saudis can provide incentives for the parties to move in a positive direction. Washington’s most vital task after the war will be to support its allies in Doha, Cairo, and Riyadh, lending its public diplomacy efforts to amplify their efforts and bolster the credibility of a regional dialogue on Israeli-Palestinian affairs. 

Joshua Yaphe was a Senior Analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. The opinions and characterizations in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Government.

Image: Mohammed Abua Elsebah / Shutterstock.com.