The rapid collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’athist government is the culmination of a thirteen-year civil war. Key global trends fed into Syria’s suffering: ethnic and religious hostilities, migration, terrorism, militant Islam, and the return of great power politics, as meddling and interventions by Türkiye, Russia, and Iran only made matters worse. 

The United States, Europe, Türkiye, and moderate Arab nations must ensure that Syria does not revert to being a Russian and Iranian stronghold in the Eastern Mediterranean again. They must also guarantee that Syria will not serve as a base for future jihadist expansion led by ISIS and that reconstruction efforts include measures to secure equality for women and all ethnic groups, particularly the Kurds, who are American allies, allowing them to coexist peacefully. This will not be an easy task.

With the fall of the Assad regime (supported by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), the geopolitical balance of power in the Levant has shifted. The borders of Syria, initially drawn by the British Empire and France in the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, may no longer exist. Türkiye and, to a lesser extent, Qatar emerged as clear winners.

For everyone else, the impact of recent events is more ambiguous. The Syrian people, the United States, and Israel will find out whether a transitional administration led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is to their benefit. The U.S. State Department still designates this rebel coalition as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). Nevertheless, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced direct contact between Washington and HTS on December 15. A U.S. delegation led by Assistant Secretary of State for the Middle East Barbara Leaf met with Ahmad al-Sharaa, the HTS Syrian leader, and the White House is reportedly contemplating lifting the Foreign Terrorist Organization designation from HTS.

To send a message to the new rulers in Damascus, Israel moved to secure a narrow buffer zone on the Golan Heights. In what may be a favor to the rest of the Middle East and the world, it also proceeded to methodically destroy Assad’s surface-to-surface missiles, chemical weapons, and other heavy weapons stored throughout Syria. With ISIS still active in the area, one never knows who could use these arms in the future or to whom HTS might sell them.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gambled on supporting multiple rebel groups after Assad rebuffed his efforts to restore relations between Türkiye and Syria. Ankara deployed the Syrian National Army (SNA) to destroy the Syrian Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northern Syria, and Turkey controls two large buffer zones there. Reports of executions of the wounded in hospitals and rape and kidnapping of Kurdish women by these Turkish proxies have shocked the world. Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Türkiye has never exerted as much military and diplomatic power in the Middle East as it does now. Qatar also supported anti-Assad forces in Syria, and there is no doubt that officials in Doha are more pleased with current events than officials in other Gulf monarchies that were more conciliatory toward Assad (e.g., UAE, Oman).

The Shift In The Balance of Power

Assad’s defeat weakens the geopolitical standing of both Tehran and Moscow. Russia spent tens of billions of dollars to keep the Syrian regime in power. For years, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah served as Iran’s leading force supporting Assad. Successful Israeli strikes against Hezbollah’s leadership this fall deprived the Syrian government of a vital ally. Russia may lose its naval port in Tartus, a Mediterranean city in northwestern Syria, and an air base in Khmeimim.

If calm ensues, reconstruction will be key. EU and American sanctions against the Assad regime targeted the dictatorship and the businesses and institutions aligned with it. Many Assad opponents now hope that Western countries can fully lift those sanctions. However, much will depend on whether and how much common ground can be found with the post-Assad regime. 

A continuous civil war or the creation of a Sharia-based terrorist state is unlikely to receive aid, much less investment. If there is chronic violence, or if the rights of women and ethnic minorities are not protected, the hundreds of billions of dollars necessary to rebuild the country and allow millions of Syrian refugees from the Middle East and Europe to come home may not materialize. 

Assad’s exile is worthy of celebration, but American leaders should not yet lift the FTO designation from HTS. In a diverse, war-torn country like Syria, post-revolutionary hatred runs deep. Ethnic and sectarian hostilities, especially fears among the Kurdish and Alawite minorities, are already mounting. The HTS-led government needs to prove that they will abandon jihad and are ready to fight ISIS. 

The defeat of Russian and Iranian forces in Syria presents an opportunity to re-establish American preeminence in the Middle East, particularly in preparation for confronting the Iranian nuclear threat. To achieve this, the United States and its allies must “get Syria right.” There is a lengthy to-do list. Washington must ensure that Russia withdraws its troops and closes its air and naval bases. HTS, the U.S., and Israel need to make sure that no Iranian resupplies reach Hezbollah via Syria.

The Perilous Path Ahead

The new Syrian leader, al-Sharaa, is projecting a pragmatic image and may be threatened by murderous radicals bent on removing the competition. He announced that it may take up to four years to hold elections in the country. This would be more than enough time to establish a Sharia-based regime. Despite the pro-Sharia regime statements by regime spokespeople, in particular, Ayshe al-Debs, the HTS Women Affairs Minister, in support of Hamas, jihad, and in favor of the limitations on women’s rights, Washington, along with our moderate Arab and European allies, must clearly communicate to HTS that a harsh, Sharia-based political system that discriminates against women, forces “conversion” on the Druze and Alawites to an extremist form of Sunni Islam, or reduces Christians to “Dhimmis” is entirely unacceptable; any attempt to do so will result in a cessation of all aid and isolation. In fact, the U.S. State Department did that, but not decisively. Thus, removing HTS’ FTO status may be premature.

For Syria to build a democratic, pluralistic, and peaceful nation dedicated to the return of its refugees, their safety and prosperity through economic development increasingly seems like a dream. Despite the immense suffering of the Syrian people, without the wisdom, patience, and tolerance of the factional leaders, there is a tragic possibility that a further phase of the war—and possibly more massacres—may still lie ahead.

Dr. Ariel Cohen is the Managing Director of the Energy, Growth, and Security program at the International Tax and Investment Center and a nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. Follow him on X: @Dr_Ariel_Cohen.

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