Despite the setbacks Russia faces in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Wagner Group mercenaries, which have rebranded as “Africa Corps” in certain areas, remain firmly entrenched across Africa. The group has not only sustained its foothold but also has deepened Russia’s ties with the mineral-rich Sahelian nations. It has secured strategic deals like the naval base at Port Sudan—giving Moscow a critical gateway to the Red Sea. The real threat lies in Russia's expanding reach, which, combined with the growing influence of China and Iran in the region, poses a direct challenge to the U.S.-led global order.

Yet, not all is doom and gloom. There are chinks in Wagner’s armor since its mercenaries' recent defeat in northern Mali by the Tuareg separatist group, the Azawad, has exposed critical vulnerabilities. Coupled with their persistent failure to curb terrorism in the areas they control, these weaknesses offer strategic opportunities for the United States and NATO allies to counter Russia’s influence on the continent.

Through a blend of disinformation, propaganda, and information warfare tactics inherited from the Soviet Union, Wagner mercenaries have successfully pushed French forces out of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, weakening France's ties with its former colonies in Francophone Africa. They have also sown discord between Sahelian nations and the United States, prompting the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Niger's Air Base 101, a strategic site that cost Washington $110 million to build.

Wagner’s influence extends far beyond ousting Western powers. Unlike the West, which conditions its aid on democratic and social reforms, Wagner provides regime security to Moscow-aligned juntas, deepening their reliance on Kremlin support. In return, Russia gains access to critical resources. After a pro-Russia coup in Niger, for instance, the junta stripped French company Orano SA of its uranium mining rights, handing them over to Moscow.

By directly confronting the West on multiple fronts through Wagner, Russia has not only weakened U.S. influence but also complicated NATO’s operations. For Russia, transactional partnerships are insufficient. Moscow seeks to create parallel institutions that obstruct the military activities of nations aligned with the West. For instance, following a series of successful coups in the Sahel, Moscow has bolstered the power of its allied juntas by helping them establish the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS). This alliance served as a counterweight to Western-oriented institutions like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union, on which NATO relies for regional cooperation.

Despite their successes, Wagner mercenaries have struggled to produce meaningful, positive outcomes on the ground. Their efforts to counter terrorist threats—central to their mission and legitimacy—have been notably ineffective. Since the Russian-backed military juntas outsourced security to Wagner, terrorist threats have only increased. According to a report by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on the Sahel and West Africa, Burkina Faso remains at the heart of regional terrorism.

The arrival of Wagner mercenaries has also fueled the rise of jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and Jamaa’t Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) while also reigniting militant separatist movements. These factions see Russia's alignment with local governments as an existential threat. In northern Mali, for example, the Azawad Tuareg rebels have escalated their attacks, targeting both the military junta and Wagner forces. On July 25, they ambushed a convoy, killing at least twenty Wagner mercenaries.

Moreover, the Russian presence has not brought greater prosperity to the region. Instead, the humanitarian crisis has deepened. This year, according to the International Organization for Migration, around seventeen million people in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger need humanitarian assistance and protection.

For the United States and its NATO allies, Russia's actions present an opportunity to recalibrate their approach—not just to contain but actively counter Russian influence. First of all, this attempt requires a shift in the U.S. geostrategic perspective, recognizing that Russia’s maneuvers extend beyond the conflict in Ukraine and signify a broader confrontation with the West.

So far, this broader perspective has been missing from the Biden administration’s strategy. This is evident in its hesitance to label Wagner as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and the absence of a comprehensive military strategy to curb Russian influence beyond Eastern Europe.

Second, the United States should promote enhanced cooperation between NATO’s southern members, non-major NATO allies, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Regarding counterterrorism efforts, Washington can lead a coordinated approach to address immediate threats and offer support to Sahelian nations struggling with security challenges. Despite their current alignment with Russia, these countries are facing issues that Wagner has not resolved, making them likely to accept assistance from U.S. partners like Morocco and Turkey to combat terrorist threats.

Third, the United States should deepen its engagement with African nations, particularly in the Sahel. Diplomatic visits, often underestimated, play a vital role in showcasing U.S. commitment to maintaining influence. These visits signal a readiness to build partnerships and strengthen ties. For instance, Mauritania has been on Russia's radar due to its strategic geographic location. However, consistent diplomatic NATO and U.S. engagement through the NATO Alliance's Mediterranean Dialogue—of which Mauritania has been a member since 1995—has contributed to the country’s stability and ongoing cooperation with the West.

If the United States and its NATO allies fail to adapt their strategy and exploit the vulnerabilities of Wagner's mercenaries, they risk allowing a terrorist threat to emerge. This development could trigger a severe migration crisis that could overwhelm Europe and North African countries. 

More importantly, at a time when the United States is contending with challenges in the Indo-Pacific, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, continued inaction would allow Russia, Iran, and China to expand their presence in Africa, securing strategic footholds that could further erode U.S. influence on a global scale.

Zineb Riboua is the Research Fellow and Program Manager at the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute. Follow her on X: @zriboua.

Image: Katja Tsvetkova / Shutterstock.com.